Crude oil exports to Asia from the US, Brazil and the North Sea have jumped 55% in the first four months of 2017, according to the latest figures from Vortexa, the oil markets analytics platform. Vortexa is an analytics platform that absorbs billions of data points from hundreds of sources using AI, deep learning algorithms and Bayesian reasoning to reveal the past, present and future movement of oil globally.
It is the first analytics platform using AI capabilities in the energy trading industry to provide an unprecedented view of global oil movements. Founded by a team with extensive energy market and technological expertise, Vortexa’s launch comes following a successful test phase with five of the industry’s largest physical energy traders, and backing from prominent tech investors in Europe.
The figures point to the continued effect the agreement between OPEC and 11 non-OPEC member countries is having on supply movements.
Vortexa CEO Fabio Kuhn commented: “As OPEC cuts take effect, non-OPEC countries are filling the growing gap in Asian oil demand. The United States, Brazil and the North Sea have provided the vast majority of new barrels to Asia among non-OPEC countries, particularly when comparing oil flows between the first quarters of 2016 and 2017. Oil exports to Asia, in particular China and South Korea, from the US and Brazil were already growing, but flows at these volumes are unprecedented and we believe that this is the beginning of an enduring trend. We have seen US crude exports to Asia increase by almost sevenfold when compared to the same time period last year, with the US now averaging 222,000 barrels per day. Brazilian exports have seen a more than 50% increase for the same time period, now supplying an average of 588,000 barrels a day to the region. Asia’s demand for oil has also taken a significant amount of North Sea barrels away from their traditional European market, with an average of 398,000 barrels a day going to Asia in the first four months of 2017.”
Bottom line? The market is awash in oil. OPEC has lost its ability control pricing and prices look to remain soft for some time. The implication for commercial aerospace? Older aircraft with high fuel burn remain economicaly effective. Could this be playing a role in the lack of orders we are seeing this year?