Pardon the delay of a few days.  Here is our updated model that takes in all of Boeing’s Annus horribilis, 2019.

  • The 787-9 was the cleanup player last year. But the 787-10 is going to come into its own.  See our story from yesterday on fuel burn and stage length.  The 787-10 is, in airline speak, a “killer app”.
  • The 737 program only saw success in the military version last year – see Page 4 for the impact military deliveries had last year.  An absolutely unprecedented and awful year for the program and Boeing as a whole.
  • Page 3 shows how deliveries were impacted by the MAX crisis. We are not bullish on the future of this program at all.
  • Page 5 shows where Boeing saw deliveries going since 2000.  Boeing is surprisingly North America focused.
  • Page 6 data is consistent with what we see at Airbus – lessors were quiet last year.
  • Page 7 shows that even though the year was poor for orders, airline direct orders was strong.
  • Page 9 provides a MAX update. We understand that several customers are switching away from MAX to 787.  Even in a soft twin-aisle market, it better to have a 787.  We can also see why we hear via media how upset Southwest Airlines and Ryanair re over MAX – they have all their eggs in that one basket.  A major lesson for all airlines, no doubt.  The MAX costs and aggravation won’t be over for a long time.
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