Saying that if Airbus can sell to Iran, Bombardier should be as well, the Canadian government announced that it plans to lift its sanctions on Iran. The process of lifting the sanctions and allowing Iran to order from Bombardier looks rather hurried.
This is fortunate for Bombardier since the firm could win some business in Iran, for which discussion are already underway with Iran Air. Iranian airlines have talked up their fleet shopping lists to 500 aircraft. That is enough to allow every OEM to get a good slice of the cake. Moreover, given existing backlogs and scarce delivery positions, Iran has to buy from everyone to get new aircraft in a reasonably short time frame.
As we have written a number of times last year, Iran is the big news in 2016 with respect to orders. However even as the Iran fleet requirement is big, it has few options in terms of new equipment. Initial reports are that Airbus will start with A340 deliveries as an interim before new aircraft can be delivered. Airbus has not announced anything, but Iran is even talking of eight A380s. Once can only imagine the pleasure in Toulouse.
This does not mean that Boeing hasn’t got a few tricks up its sleeve. Iran’s return to the market comes at an excellent time for Boeing. Iran needs a lot of long haul aircraft and Boeing’s 777 needs customers. A perfect match right there. Boeing could deliver 777s at the speed Iran would like and this will be a significant advantage.
Which brings us back to Bombardier (and even Embraer and ATR). The small duopoly stands to win big time with any jet aircraft under 150 seats. Once again a primary issue will be deliveries. Iran no doubt will be looking at how quickly they can acquire new builds, and may also be in the market for some 50 seaters to replace.
The move by the new Canadian government is helpful to Bombardier. But Iran still holds all the cards in terms of a competitive bidding process, and will play them accordingly.
“scare delivery positions”. Freudian slip influenced by Boeing earnings call? Yep. delivery positions are scary things right now 😉
The emaciated state of Iran’s airline industry is not likely to make it a showcase for the CSeries. Jumping from their very isolated current state to trying to compete with European airlines and the ME3 will be a major challenge in terms of frequency and on-time departures. It is likely their initial numbers will look poor. Hopefully a potential Bombardier sale to Iran doesn’t lead to negative perceptions of the aircraft.
oops – typo.
Will do business in Iran those OEMs that can come up with near-term delivery slots. Boeing with its 777 is one, possibly also with 737 CEO … the ramp-up @ Bombardier is slow. I think Iran will move on available ‘serious’ second-hand capacity. They will also make display of trade-political neutrality, wherefore they’ll go for C919 and/or MS21 in meaningful numbers, as a message to the world : no ties, no allegiance !
Good point about early delivery slots. Based on this criteria, BBD would have trouble selling the C Series to Iran, but could deliver Q400s and CRJs fairly quickly. Production lines for these two well-established types are currently running at a leisurely pace, to say the least.
With its population of 80 million souls, Iran is lagging behind in air transport infrastructure, with an enthralling potential for development. With apprx 1,300 km across SW-NE and 2,500 km NW-SE and a pityful road network, the land is going to be opened with air transport as the master tool. This is definitely an Eldorado for aircraft sales people !
In French newspapers , it was reported that the company that manages the Charles de Gaulle Airport has signed a major contract to develop the airports in Iran. Currently, only 9 are functional …
A contract with Iran would be welcome for Bombardier. Especially as we now learn that the supposed German investor invest in Air Baltic is desired. So, advances of money for CS300 are not paid. This investor, Girmess, is believed to be a white knight that would act under the directive of Poutine to replace the CSeries by Sulkoi SS100 and politically influence the Baltics … Ouch …
Having Air Baltic as the CS300 launch operator has looked weak from the start. Although the SSJ-100 is in a different class than the CS300, advances not being paid are of immediate concern.
Looking at the “firm orders” for the C Series, it would not be obvious to find another credible launch customer for the CS300.
Only Korean Air and Swiss appear solid enough, with Malmö as a outsider… Unless Bombardier can find a major North American carrier to take the 40 aircraft ordered by Republic.
With all the pre-EIS work currently being done by Swiss for the CS100, it would be logical for Swiss to also become the CS300 lauch operator.