China imposed counter sanctions on the USA.  Boeing is seen a prime target for these.  What do we know?

China imposing tariffs on 737-800s (and smaller) Boeing aircraft.  While the -800 is the current volume program, it is the MAX where everyone needs to focus because that is the future of Boeing’s 737 program.  Using the Boeing O&D data we compiled this table on MAX deals. Deliveries are through February.  We went back to 2013 for orders.

Many MAX orders that might be impacted by the sanctions; only 8% of the orders have been delivered. Lessors might be able to place the aircraft outside China and thereby possibly escape the sanctions.  But how certain can one be of that option?

Several analysts have opined that the sanctions are not serious and Boeing can overcome them.  Moreover, one source thinks the MAX8 could be outside the sanctions.  To demonstrate the uncertainty of the China decision, look at Boeing’s stock over the past five days. There was an initial drop today.

The market appears to be recovering confidence from the news breaking today.  The market may be too hasty.

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Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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