Daily Insight – Friday January 25, 2019 – Dublin Thoughts

News

AirInsight attended the two aviation finance conferences in Dublin this week. The conversations we had and overheard were generally positive.  Everyone is looking at growth.  Traffic is strong.  Load factors are high and airlines need more lift. The sooner the aircraft are delivered the better.  Steven Udvar-Hazy and ALC are more sanguine and do not want to see further production rate increases at Airbus and Boeing.

Analysis

This ongoing bullish view does not solve the supply chain crisis.  John Plueger, new boss at ALC, mentioned that oil and labor remain the airline industry’s big costs.  The industry is seeing softening oil prices again.  The recent spike caught Monarch, Primera and airBelin, and another spike will catch others.  Norwegian perhaps?  What we found amazing is that there was all the talk about cheap capital and cheap oil.