DBEA55AED16C0C92252A6554BC1553B2 Clicky DBEA55AED16C0C92252A6554BC1553B2 Clicky
March 2, 2024
derivatives likely
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Environmental concerns and changing technologies will combine to make the next generation of aircraft quite different from those we see today.  The first all-electric aircraft are emerging, and growing from 2 seat models to 8-9 seat models quickly.  While full electrification of larger airplanes isn’t feasible from a battery standpoint, the potential for hydrogen fuel cells is under study and looks promising.  The likelihood is that we will end up with a feasible and efficient hybrid propulsion system for commercial aircraft by the 2035-2040 time frame.  That has implications for the near term, which will find derivatives likely rather than all-new aircraft.

Even if we don’t see changes in propulsion, changes in design may emerge that obsolete today’s aircraft.  Lifting bodies and flying wing designs will add another 15-20 percent to fuel efficiency and will be a key to achieving the goals for carbon reduction that politicians and governments are mandating for the future.  

Environmental concerns and changing technologies will combine to make the next generation of aircraft quite different from those we see today.  The first all-electric aircraft are emerging, and growing from 2 seat models to 8-9 seat models quickly.  While full electrification of larger airplanes isn’t feasible from a battery standpoint, the potential for hydrogen fuel cells is under study and looks promising.  The likelihood is that we will end up with a feasible and efficient hybrid propulsion system for commercial aircraft by the 2035-2040 time frame.  That has implications for the near term, which will find derivatives likely rather than all-new aircraft.


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