Insight: Derivatives likely in the near term

Environmental concerns and changing technologies will combine to make the next generation of aircraft quite different from those we see today.  The first all-electric aircraft are emerging, and growing from 2 seat models to 8-9 seat models quickly.  While full electrification of larger airplanes isn’t feasible from a battery standpoint, the potential for hydrogen fuel cells is under study and looks promising.  The likelihood is that we will end up with a feasible and efficient hybrid propulsion system for commercial aircraft by the 2035-2040 time frame.  That has implications for the near term, which will find derivatives likely rather than all-new aircraft.

Even if we don’t see changes in propulsion, changes in design may emerge that obsolete today’s aircraft.  Lifting bodies and flying wing designs will add another 15-20 percent to fuel efficiency and will be a key to achieving the goals for carbon reduction that politicians and governments are mandating for the future.