Did Covid structurally change US airline traffic?

That the pandemic did a number on the US travel industry is not in question. The US travel industry has been hit before on 9/11. But nothing like the Covid pandemic had this long an impact. Take a look at the chart. An odd relationship in 2019 seems to have broken in 2020. We use January 1st, 2019, as the base point equal to 100 for both curves. Then, we track the base number daily over the timeframe. [caption id="attachment_77379" align="aligncenter" width="580"] US Air Travel Data from TSA & FR24[/caption] Let's start by stating the obvious - we do not have a long history to work with. In 2019, there seems to be a close relationship between the number of flights and passengers. In 2020, all hell broke loose; it is a year we all want to forget. However, we can't, and so here we are. The chart shows US airlines could not adjust schedules as quickly as traffic disappeared. Whereas traffic bottomed out in April 202 at 5.15, flights were 41.63. US airlines bled severely, as you may recall. They went to DC for help. By May 2020, traffic was returning from the lump - 10.87 for traffic and 36.39 for flights. Here's what intrigues us - look at the gap between traffic and flights that wasn't there in 2019. That gap has remained more or less intact since. Did a gap like this exist before? We don't have the data to show this in the model above. We have the US DOT source to track the number of flights and traffic volumes. This chart uses the US DOT T2 dataset compiled from the T-100. We set 2000 as our base year at 100. This period includes several airline mergers: Delta/Northwest, America/USAirways, Alaska/Virgin America, United/Continental, and Southwest/AirTran. The chart shows a steady decline in flights even as traffic grew. The pandemic hit is quite clear, and the impact was devastating. Passenger traffic in 2020 is about the same as in 2002, while flights are about what we first saw in 2005. [caption id="attachment_77388" align="aligncenter" width="580"] T2 Traffic[/caption] It appears there has been a dislocation in traffic and fights for several years. But it is consolidation that drove this change. However, comparing the two charts, the upper chart shows flights growing faster than traffic. When we use a longer timeline, we see that traffic is growing faster than flights. It is fascinating to see the different outcomes by widening the timeline. To answer the question posed: It appears that any dislocation preceded the pandemic and that consolidation is probably a bigger influence on structural changes between US airlines and traffic.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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