The latest updates provided by Embraer on their turboprop are an indication that the program is progressing well and is getting even closer to a launch. This could well be next year, with first deliveries expected in 2027, in line with what the Brazilian airframer has said before. Still, there are many questions about the status and the timing of the new airplane. Let’s go through them step by step. Embraer's turboprop still has to tick a few boxes. What is the new turboprop all about? Embraer has a rich history of turboprops, but it left the regional aircraft segment after the Brasilia came of age and jets were the thing to go for. Since 2017, the OEM has been thinking of a new turboprop and for a number of reasons. The Western market has been dominated by Bombardier/De Havilland Canada and ATR, but despite updates, their designs are getting outdated and offer a huge potential for replacement Embraer wants to go for. Embraer thinks it can make a step-change with a clean sheet design, although it incorporates a fuselage with the same 2.74-meter cross-section as the E2-family. Initially, it talked about a 70-100 seat cabin, but in a presentation on August 13, Senior Vice President Engineering and Development Luis Carlos Affonso said the aircraft will be a 70-90 seater. President and CEO Commercial Aviation Arjan Meijer added on LinkedIn that the turboprop offers ten percent more space compared to current TPs, with costs per seat fifteen percent better while flying twenty percent faster. The turboprop will have the same cabin cross-section and 2-by-2 layout as the current E2-series. (Helvetic Airways) How big is the market? In its most recent 10-year Market Outlook from December 2020, Embraer predicts a worldwide turboprop market of 1.080 aircraft. That’s considerably smaller than the 2.320 predicted only a year earlier in a 20-year outlook. The most important market will be China/Asia Pacific with 490 turboprops. Embraer will target older Dash 8s and ATRs. But Luis Affonso made clear that the turboprop “with its innovative characteristics, will be able to replace current 50-seater jets. Our proposal will be a jet-like turboprop.” This opens up a huge replacement and growing market of regional jets, including that of older Embraer ERJs and E1s as well as that of Bombardier/Mitsubishi CRJs, especially in North America. Many US airlines have retired older regional jets following the Covid crisis or have opted to replace them with bigger aircraft, as United has announced with its recent order for 200 MAX and seventy A321neos’s. Embraer’s 2020 market outlook predicts the retirement of almost 700 regional aircraft in North America by 2029, mostly 50-seaters but also 65-76 seaters. CEO Francisco Gomes Neto said on August 13 that especially US airlines have shown an interest in the turboprop. With its higher speed, the TP could be an attractive proposition for regional jets. Graphic from Embraer's 2020 Market Outlook, showing the predicted retirements of regional aircraft in North America until 2029. (Embraer) Will the turboprop cannibalize the E1 and E2? That’s a question that we hear Embraer is struggling with. With its 70-90 seat capacity, the turboprop sits right in the same segment as the E170 (66-78 seats), the E175 (76-88 seats), and the E175-E2 (80-90 seats). Of these models, the E175 is the best-selling one, with a current backlog of 141. After 191 sales, the E170’s backlog has dried up. You could argue that by the time the turboprop enters service around 2027, the E1 has come to the end of its natural cycle. That’s different for the E175-E2. Eight years after the program launch and almost two years since its first flight, the type has failed to score a single order. Sales in the key US market have been hindered by the continued scope clause, which restricts regional airlines from operating aircraft over 76 seats and a maximum take-off weight of 86.000 pounds. The E175-E2 weighs 98.120 lbs. The same issue has caused a time-out but likely a permanent end of the Mitsubishi MRJ/SpaceJet. Embraer will have to do everything to keep the turboprop under the scope clause weight limit. The E175-E2 and the turboprop share the same market segment. Will Embraer give up the smallest E2 in favor of the TP? (Embraer) Without the prospect of a quick solution to the scope clause problem, the E175-E2 is unlikely to win any sales soon in the US, while elsewhere airlines favor the bigger E190-E2 and E195-E2. When it will launch the turboprop in 2022, this almost certainly would mean the end of the E175-E2 before it has been certified and has ever flown a commercial service. Although offering the same 17 percent fuel burn advantage as its E2-sisters, the smallest E2 would struggle to compete against the turboprop which according to Luis Affonso will have a 25 to 40 percent better fuel burn compared to older generation jets. While the gap to the E2 is smaller, the turboprop still would come out the winner. Launching the turboprop means Embraer could lose its investment on the E175-E2, which includes the design of a dedicated wing, without recouping the costs. That will hurt but seems an inevitable decision to make. What engines will power the turboprop? So far, Embraer hasn’t disclosed any information on that. But this is also something that will give Affonso and his team some serious thinking. Will Embraer go for current technology engines or wait until disruptive technology has become available? Going for current technology means bolting a couple of Pratt & Whitney Canada PW150s to the back of the aircraft. Or maybe an updated version P&W has been working on as part of the Next-Generation Turboprop Program, which has been studied for almost a decade. Alternatively, it could ask General Electric to develop a new engine based on the T408 used on the Sikorsky CH-53K helicopter. Or upsize GE Aviation’s Catalyst, the all-new business and general aviation engine that is one-third in its certification program. GE is also working with Safran on the CFM RISE program that will test some 300 different technologies for a new engine that could potentially be an open rotor, to be available around 2035 and seems a perfect fit for the T-tail TP. The CFM RISE open rotor seems ideally suited for the Embraer turboprop, but it will take some fourteen years before a production version could enter service. That's too late for the TP. (Safran) Generally speaking, the aviation industry expects 2030 to be the year when new engine technologies will become available. Like hybrid-electric, full electric, and – around the mid-2030s – the first hydrogen powerplants. Affonso said on August 13 that Embraer too is studying these technologies. It wants to have a hydrogen demonstrator available by 2025 and has just started flight testing its first electric Ipanema single-seater technology demonstrator. So what is the smartest thing to do? Launch the turboprop now with current technology or wait at least five more years until new engine concepts and hybrid-electric and/or hydrogen have progressed? Or could the turboprop be designed with these technologies in mind for an update in the mid-2030s? That would be a huge investment in both technologies, of which one would have only a very brief period to recoup costs. It makes the timing of the launch a most delicate one. Who will be Embraer’s partners? Embraer has said from the outset that it needs partners to develop the turboprop. In 2019, Boeing looked to be the obvious partner as the Brazilian and US airframer were working hard to complete their commercial aircraft joint-venture. This all changed in April 2020, when Boeing pulled the plug on the JV. Since then, Embraer is said to have been in constant discussion with potential partners, reportedly in China and India, about a role in the new aircraft. Airinsight learns that discussions have already resulted in some sort of preliminary agreements and/or MoU’s, ready to be confirmed when Embraer will launch the turboprop. Gomes Neto said on August 13 that partnership talks are indeed progressing well. Embraer says it will make further announcements on the turboprop later in the year. With Dubai Airshow coming up in November, this could be a logical occasion. But don’t expect any formal program launch before Farnborough 2022.
