First quarter 2024 Commercial Aircraft Deliveries

It could take two weeks for the OEMs to publish their official numbers. Meanwhile, here's what our daily delivery tracker says. [caption id="attachment_82575" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] The FAA rate restriction and the short grounding of the MAX 9 harmed Boeing's MAX deliveries. However, Boeing continues to benefit from freighter deliveries and military derivatives of commercial aircraft, which we are not reporting here. The following table lists the last three deliveries for the first quarter. [caption id="attachment_82576" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] The following table shows another aspect of the delivery story. The highlighted regions are waiting for Boeing deliveries. The US is the largest market for the MAX. In Asia, Chinese MAXs have just started again after a long hiatus. [caption id="attachment_82585" align="aligncenter" width="333"] AirInsight[/caption] Breaking the deliveries into OEMs and models, we have the following. [caption id="attachment_82587" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] The data is split into rough seating categories to allow comparisons. The left table illustrates how Airbus has an advantage in the 100-130 seat categories over Boeing. The E2 program would have been helpful. In the 160-170 category, Airbus and Boeing are neck and neck. However, the 175-200 category points to where the market is headed, and Boeing lacks an effective response to the A321. The MAX 8-200 is a potentially disruptive aircraft mainly because of Ryanair. If Allegiant can deploy this model effectively in the US, we could see more ULCCs order it. When the MAX 10 is certified, we wonder about the future of the MAX 9. The right table focuses on twin aisles. Boeing's 787-9 is the most delivered model. Note also that this category is the most active among twin aisles. Airbus' A350 is winning orders and will likely keep deliveries running steadily. The lack of the 777X hampers Boeing at the high end of the categories. This category is also relatively small, and we wonder about customer patience for their 777X orders. This would be less concerning if Boeing's problems were only 777X-related. However, slow MAX and 787 deliveries change the entire OEM risk profile. There may yet be a customer reaction.

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