Photo: Airbus.
Let’s take a look at how will the aviation industry evolve in Latin America. We will use the data released by Airbus in its latest Global Market Forecast (GMF) for the 2022-2041 period. Worldwide, Airbus expects 39,490 deliveries by 2041, up from 39,020 last year, based on a Gross Domestic Product growth of 2.6%. But what are the company’s projections in Latin America?
An increase in trips per capita
Latin America is an underdeveloped region for the aviation industry. Compared to global economies such as the United States, Latin America’s average trips per capita have not developed well over the last few years. In the US, the average person hops on an aircraft 2.07 times per year, versus 0.36 times per year in Latin America. An abysmal difference.
Nonetheless, Airbus expects the trips per capita in the region to nearly double in the next twenty years.
According to the data released, the trips per capita in the region will jump from 0.36 in 2019 to 0.69 by 2041, with some countries leading the way heavily.
Brazil is expected to rise from 0.4 trips per capita in 2019 to 0.94 by 2041, which is undoubtedly excellent news, but still a big gap to be addressed throughout the century. In comparison, by 2041, the trips per capita in the United States will be 3.08.
Mexico will jump from 0.51 trips per capita in 2019 to 0.84 by 2041, a slower projected growth in line with the overall trend of the Mexican economy.
Chile and Colombia will have the most trips per capita by 2041 in the region. On average, Chile will have 2.15 trips per capita by that year (up from 0.97 currently), and Colombia will have 1.56 (up from 0.64).
Aircraft needed
Latin America had 1,450 aircraft in 2020 (both passenger and freighter jetliners). Airbus projects the region will need 2,550 new deliveries between 2022 and 2041 and up to 300 conversions.
By the end of 2041, Latin America is projected to double its fleet to 2,850 active aircraft. Worldwide, Airbus projects the global fleet that will be composed of 46,930 aircraft.
The Latin American region is heavily dominated by single-aisle aircraft and will continue to be like that in the next two decades. Airbus expects 91% of the new deliveries (2,330) will be for narrowbody jetliners, and the remaining will be widebodies. This is in line with the current trends, where the majority of the existing aircraft orders are for narrowbodies, particularly Airbus A320s and Boeing 737s family-based planes.
Airbus and Boeing’s most important clients in the region are Volaris, JetSMART (who will launch the A321XLR here), Avianca, LATAM, Aeromexico, GOL, and Copa Airlines.
The growth of the markets
Airbus expects the domestic markets of Brazil, Central America, Mexico, and South America to have a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5%, 2.5%, 2.9%, and 4.1%, respectively between 2019 and 2041.
The European company expects key markets such as the Mexico-United States to have a CAGR of 3.6%; intra-Central America (excluding domestic) 2.5%; intra-South America 3.3%; South America-USA 4.4%; Canada-Central America 3.3%; and Canada-South America 4.0%.
Daniel Martínez Garbuno is a Mexican journalist. He has specialized in the air industry working mainly for A21, a Mexican media outlet focused entirely on the aviation world. He has also published on other sites like Simple Flying, Roads & Kingdoms, Proceso, El Economista, Buzos de la Noticia, Contenido, and Notimex.
