ICAO conference tries to move forward on SAF

On Wednesday, Emirates operated a 38-minute flight out of Dubai International Airport and back with an Airbus A380 flying on 100 percent sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). While a world’s first that generated some good publicity for the airline, the special flight must be seen in a wider context. At the same time, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) was having the third Conference on Aviation and Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3) in Dubai. The conference should produce new and concrete steps for the introduction of more SAF. CAAF/3, which follows a week after the Dubai Airshow and precedes next week’s global COP28 conference at the former Dubai Expo venue, was already announced in October last year during the ICAO 41st Assembly. Back then, the 193 member states unanimously agreed on a long-term aspirational goal (LTAG) to get aviation to net zero in 2050. However, the ICAO Assembly also concluded that more work needs to be done on SAF, calling on member states to stimulate the production of SAF, assist states with SAF programs, define and promote the transition to SAF, and facilitate access for states to financing, notably in Africa. All these topics have been discussed this week at CAAF/3. Governments need to commit While conclusions will be drawn on Friday, various participants warned earlier in the week of the slow pace at which SAF production is going in the world. While the International Air Transport Association (IATA) shared some optimism about the planned SAF production by the end of this decade during the IATA AGM in June, the message in Dubai was less optimistic. “Virtually no SAF is available to our industry today. Merely 0.1 percent of airlines’ fuel demand was met by SAF in 2022 and we estimate that this will rise to 0.2 percent in 2023. Many of our members have themselves committed to significant SAF uptake, and this demand vastly exceeds the current and likely future production, unless governments can unleash this market’s potential,” said IATA’s Marie Owens Thomsen in her speech on Monday. She added: “The world needs urgent positive, not punitive, action from governments, committing to adopt policies that will generate maximum SAF production, everywhere. As we have stated numerous times ahead of this conference, airlines stand ready with open arms to catch the resulting SAF production, because we stand united in our industry, in our value chain, and with ICAO Member States in our common goal of delivering sustainable aviation by 2050.” IATA and ATAG remain concerned about the lack of availability of SAF. (Emirates) IATA said the industry needs “a global and robust SAF accounting mechanism based on trusted chain of custody models. Such a system is necessary for tracking the progress to Net Zero, for airlines and their customers to be able to claim the emissions reductions associated with their SAF purchases against their decarbonization obligations, and for ensuring that no double counting occurs.” IATA presented five roadmaps to get to net zero at the AGM in Istanbul. Aviation could lag behind The Air Transport Action Group (ATAG), Airports Council International (ACI), and other organizations shared some numbers of the current and planned SAF production: “Looking at the wider renewable fuels market (including renewable diesel, SAF, and other transport fuels), more than 150 global projects are being explored in 35 countries by over 100 different producers. Currently, this equates to 73.4 million tonnes (91.8 billion liters) of advanced renewable fuel production capacity out to 2029, with a growth trajectory expected to continue out to 2030 and beyond." "With the right policies and incentives, an increasing proportion of the renewable fuel production capacity could be channeled towards SAF production. However, in the absence of this, aviation could lag behind, and this capacity could go to meet other sectors’ needs like road or marine transportation.” SAF is produced through eight main so-called pathways or production methodologies, with another seven being assessed. The most used pathway is that of hydrotreated esters and fatty acids (HEFA), but ATAG and other organizations are concerned that this will eventually restrict SAF production: “From the SAF projects tracked, 85 percent are currently derived from the HEFA pathway, however, it has been identified that HEFA will have limits in meeting the full SAF demand for the industry in the long term (beyond 2035) due to constraints on feedstock availability. There is a need for quick and targeted diversification of feedstocks to increase the availability of SAF from advanced pathways such as alcohol-to-jet (AtJ), gasification Fischer-Tropsch (FT) and power-to-liquid (PtL) by the end of the 2030s.” Like IATA, ATAG, and others stated that the airline industry is fully committed to SAF. “Airlines, operators, and corporate partners currently have around $45 billion in forward purchase agreements for SAF, an increase from $6 billion pre-Covid. More than 50 airlines have committed to 2030 SAF goals ranging from 5-30 percent of their total fuel usage, with most of them committing to 10 percent use. These airlines represented over 40 percent of global RTKs in 2019. In addition, SAF is already being distributed at 69 airports on a regular basis.” But not all the SAF initiatives might come to fruition, ATAG warns: “There are well over 100 announcements for new renewable fuel plants. Some of them might not make it to the final investment decision, others might emerge in the coming years as a result of new national policies and frameworks, and some of may opt to focus the production into supplying road transport unless the right policies and incentives from States prioritize the channeling of such feedstock and infrastructure towards sustainable aviation fuels. (…) Ambition beyond current policies and incentives to reach net zero carbon by 2050 will necessitate even more coordinated efforts from government and industry alike.” Financing remains an obstacle In a draft global framework for CAAF/3, ICAO acknowledges these concerns. “The global scale-up in production of SAF, LCAF and other aviation cleaner energies requires a robust and substantial capacity-building and implementation support program. States, ICAO, industry, academia and other relevant stakeholders are encouraged to work together to deliver such a program.” This program should include tailored support, facilitate partnerships, alliances, and cooperation between States and all relevant stakeholders, including the exchange of information, sharing of best practices and technological developments, and support States in their planning, development, as well as implementation of national and regional policies that can be applied across all stages of fuel supply-chain. Meeting the long-term aspirational goals in 2050 will require an investment of $3.2 trillion from fuel suppliers, says ICAO. As last year’s ICAO Assembly already concluded, financing is an enormous challenge, especially for developing countries without a SAF production infrastructure. This was also noted by Kenya. Although keen to participate in SAF production projects, the country said in Dubai that “the scale of financing required to unlock the high potential for cleaner energy is beyond the borrowing capacity of national balance sheet and considering the risk premium by private capital.” ICAO sees a role here for development banks and capital markets, but also for donor states, the United Nations, and energy producers. The organization proposes an ICAO Finvest Hub, which could act as a match-maker between public and private investors to facilitate funding and reduce risks. “Private capital alone will not be enough to fully address the challenge of scaling up in the development and deployment of SAF, LCAF and other aviation cleaner energies. Sizeable public investment, including in the form of concessionary funding, will be required to support some SAF, LCAF and other aviation cleaner energy projects, particularly in developing countries,” the draft document says. Emirates flew a 38-minute flight near Dubai, using 100 percent SAF on one engine. (Emirates) Emirates' A380 scoop with SAF That progress is made with SAF was one of the purposes of the Emirates A380 flight on Wednesday. The aircraft used four tonnes of HEFA synthetic paraffinic kerosene provided by Neste and hydro-deoxygenated synthetic aromatic kerosene by Virent. The SAF was used on only one of the four Engine Alliance GP7200s while the other three used conventional kerosene. The APU also used pure SAF. The flight took off from DXB, flew off-coast Dubai, and returned to the airport. Emirates has recently announced and undertaken various SAF initiatives, including contracts with Shell Aviation for the supply of 315.000 gallons of blended SAF at DXB and with Neste for three million gallons at Amsterdam Schiphol and Singapore Changi. The carrier already uplifts SAF in Norway and France. While this week’s SAF test flight was the first it conducted with an A380, Emirates has already done a demonstration flight with 100 percent SAF with a Boeing 777-300ER powered by General Electric GE90 engines. On Tuesday, the UAE announced a new research consortium to develop, produce, and scale SAF technologies. Called Air-CRAFT, the Centre for Renewable and Advanced Fuel Technologies for Aviation will bring together different parties like policymakers, aviation regulators, fuel producers, academia and researchers, aircraft and powerplant manufacturers, and airline operators. Partners include Emirates and Etihad, Boeing, the GCAA, ANOC, ADNOC, Honeywell, as well as Khalifa University. ICAO and Airbus announced a joint initiative to explore the feasibility of SAF development and deployment in South America.

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