Insight Monday 20 January 2020: More Software Delays for MAX?

News Boeing announced last week that the latest software review with the FAA resulted in additional minor glitches that need to be addressed before the MAX can return to service. Industry speculation is that the new error, which impacts screens at start-up, might result in additional software related delays. The more important news from the announcement was the clarification that Boeing has entirely reprogrammed the flight management system for the MAX, integrating the two FMS computers that formerly operated independently. This will provide additional redundancy and safety, and represents a significant upgrade in capabilities for the aircraft. Analysis Will the minor start-up glitch that ensures all sensors are operating and reporting properly impact the time line for certification? Possibly, although Boeing is working to correct the problem and submit the final version for certification on the latest planned schedule. But with so many broken schedules from Boeing, it is difficult to tell. What is interesting is that Boeing was more transparent in describing the scope of the new software that, unlike the 737NG, is integrated across both FMS computers on the airplane. The comprehensiveness of the software rewrite explains, in part, the more extensive delays than originally anticipated after multiple optimistic return to service projections from Boeing. The fact that both Boeing and the FAA were aware of the scope of the software changes and that Boeing’s former CEO kept making unrealistically optimistic projection was likely another factor in his demise. It now appears that the window towards transparency has been cracked open a bit, albeit still not to the level that will restore confidence. Insight The larger scope for software changes in the FMS architecture indicates that the FAA and international regulators are finally providing the regulatory oversight that had been missing in the initial certification process in which Boeing misled the FAA. This should provide additional confidence once the aircraft return to service that issues outside of MCAS have also been reviewed and brought to modern standards. The MAX suffers from being a mixture of old and new technologies. The integration of old and new technologies is not easy, but when done properly, will work. The benefit of the extensive delays to re-write critical flight control systems to the latest standards should come from increased confidence in the MAX. Unfortunately, we still have not seen a complete inventory of the problems, findings, and solutions provided during the MAX re-certification process. An inventory of the problems discovered, actions taken, and tested results would go a long way to restoring airline and customer confidence. A simple checklist of issues and a description of the solutions would provide the transparency necessary to quickly clear up the crisis. After two crashes, the MAX has been examined and re-examined to determine the problems that existed, and how safety can be enhanced. Isn’t it about time that Boeing and the FAA tell the public exactly what is going on and whether other issues remain unsolved in the background that will continue to impact airlines and the traveling public with further delays. Ten months in, apart from fixing MCAS, which still isn’t approved, the news has been a series of drips and leaks about additional issues. It is well past time to clear the air and move from speculation into reality. Boeing needs to lead the way, as government is incapable of doing so. But that could result in an admission of problems with the aircraft that could impact legal judgments and negative cash flow. Those judgments are likely to happen anyway, and Boeing’s public statements will have little impact compared with the trash-talking e-mails that were released. But they could show a company that is stepping up to problems with sound solutions that will improve aviation safety, and is taking actions to change its culture for the better. This will be the first test of Calhoun’s leadership -- can he communicate to those impacted to regain their confidence. A little honesty can go a long way to re-building trust.

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