Insight: Why is Turkish adding A350s?

News out today is that Turkish Airlines has ordered another ten A350-900s. Why would the airline do this? As the chart shows, these two aircraft are virtually identical at Turkish. In a previous analysis, we noted how closely matched the A350-900 and 787-9 are. In economic terms, these two are neck and neck. Turkish first took delivery of A350-900s at an opportune moment - taking the previously ordered but not yet delivered A350-900s destined for Aeroflot. Turkish was alone in benefiting from the Russian sanctions issue - Air India also seized the opportunity. The following chart lists the daily utilization of Turkish's widebody fleet. The airline has been growing and adding aircraft faster than most. Moreover, its growth ambitions have been public. The chart shows aircraft are working harder, with rising utilization across the fleet. In the first half of 2023, the Turkish widebody fleet of long-haul aircraft is doing about 15-hour days. We get the following by considering the combination of ASMs and block hours. The red number in the ball is fleet size, and the ball size equals the number of flights. The airline makes nearly identical use of the A350-900 and 787-9. The larger 777-300ER works harder and longer, as one would expect. But the use of both 767-9 and A350-900 becomes rather striking. Looking at the airline's network strategy chart, we note that it has several markets in "green" - markets where it has both cost and market leadership. This indicates that Turkish has a stronghold in several key markets, and the ability to switch between models could be an advantage. Moreover, considering the unsteady 787 deliveries as Boeing had to work through issues, de-risking by adding A30-900s was likely a smart move, especially if Airbus was going to be stuck with the Aeroflot aircraft. The Aeroflot deliveries were almost available quickly and at a steeper than usual discount. You may recall how these aircraft were delivered in Aeroflot colors and the Aeroflot cabins. The ability to move fast during a combination of pandemic and sanctions favored Turkish. Consequently, we suggest that the decision to add more A350-900s means that Turksih has found the model to provide reliable and effective service. While we have no visibility on pricing, one can expect pricing to be sharp given the 787-9 being delivered again. Moreover, Airbus moving quickly on the Aeroflot fleet means the OEM is seeing some payback.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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