DBEA55AED16C0C92252A6554BC1553B2 Clicky DBEA55AED16C0C92252A6554BC1553B2 Clicky
April 19, 2024
The market recovery continues apace. 
Care to share?

The market recovery continues apace.  The chart shows we just had the best January since the pandemic.  As several sources have mentioned, the supply chain remains the Achilles’ Heel.

What was delivered then? As the chart for January 2023 on the right illustrates, it was the MAX8 that drove these numbers.  Boeing is furiously working through the backlog.  The biggest customer for the MAX8 was, no surprise, Southwest with 15.  A delivery every other day.  Our tracking started on January 2021; since then, we have counted 110 MAX8s going to Southwest.

The backlog offers opportunities – for example, Akasa, a startup founded only in December 2021, has benefitted by getting deliveries at a good pace.   The airline has taken 17 already.

Another example is 777 Partners and its brands like Flair.  Flair has taken 27 MAX8s.  Bonza, another of the 777 brands, acquired 6. 

Others exploited the slow response from China to allow the MAX into service.  Probably at discounted pricing, but Boeign got aircraft into the market, which has to be job #1.  The quicker these aircraft are put to work, the sooner the demand for spares kicks in.  And it is this long tail of support that is the most profitable part of selling a commodity.

As the next table lists, Airbus has emerging trends in their deliveries. Listing the period we have been tracking new deliveries:

  • The A320 is no longer the most delivered new model; the A321 is now the leader. This has big implications for Airbus and Boeing.
  • Notice the A220-300 success.  It is the third most delivered model for Airbus and ties with the A350-900.  That deal with Bombardier has to be the best in the history of commercial aerospace.  Who would have guessed the A220-300 could be delivered at 20% of the A320neo?
  • Airbus widebodies have been delivered at good rates.  The A330-900 is doing rather well.  One-third of those 36 deliveries have gone to Delta. 
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Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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