We have an ESG model update based on the DoT’s T-2 update. Our methodology is calculating average seats (airlines change LOPA quite often), calculating fuel burn per air hour, and then calculating the average fuel burn seat hour. Based on this number, we can project carbon emissions.
Since single aisles are the largest segment, we will focus on this. The table below is based on US airlines. The greener (lower) the number, the better, and vice versa (higher) for red. A key driver is the number of seats – more seats make the emissions relatively lower. The greenest airplane in use among US airlines is the MAX9, followed by the A321neo.
To illustrate our point about seat count, here’s the data for single aisles but by airline rather than aircraft. The ULCCs are the best-rated because of relatively high seat counts. Notice how Hawaiian improved after it added the A321neo, pushing up its average seat count while also deploying a far “greener” airplane. Similarly, we expect to see JetBlue’s number go greener as it acquires more A220s, and these impact the average for their fleet. Even Allegiant has been becoming less yellow as it phased out MD80s in favor of second-hand Airbus’.
Among the bigger airlines, Alaska’s focus on MAX9 is making them greener. United’s growing MAX fleet is doing the same thing. American and Delta are still working through the refleet process – Delta is starting to a tinge of green as its A321neos and A220s impact.
A final thought, looking at the header image, notice the relatively massive emissions from regional jets.
Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.