Mounting evidence the MAX is getting back on track

The data clearly show that Boeing is getting the MAX program back on track. This is a crucial metric, possibly the most-watched item in commercial aviation. Nobody in the commercial aviation silo sees this as a negative. Nobody. The unstable duopoly and wobbly supply chain need Boeing to recover quickly. Boeing has been working hard at this, and the proof is in the numbers. Deliveries Readers know about our focus on this activity. In our view, nothing trumps a delivery. Orders are made and modified. Deliveries are hard facts. And deliveries come with final payments. Here is our primary evidence of Boeing getting the MAX program stable again. The red arrows and yellow highlights should be easy to follow. The highlights show that aging MAX deliveries are being executed. These are primarily long-delayed Chinese deliveries dating back to the first grounding. One exception is the GOL delivery, which started as an airplane for Southwest Airlines. The Air India Express airplane was originally for China Southern. [caption id="attachment_89419" align="aligncenter" width="420"] AirInsight[/caption] Indian airlines have taken advantage of delayed Chinese aircraft, such as the Air India Express airplane. Note that Akasa received a delivery from its order book. Observe that it took only 46 days from the first flight to delivery. The more significant customers are highlighted with red arrows. Notice that the delivery days number is more in line with expectations. In 2017, the MAX program saw an average of around 33 delivery days. Southwest and United, key MAX customers, are approaching that rate again. Even ever-complaining Ryanair is at 43. There is no disputing team Boeing is working hard. The proof is in the numbers. By the way, Boeing is ahead 33 to 20 at Airbus in single-aisle deliveries at this writing. Production Unlike deliveries, production is subject to the FAA rate limit of 38 per month. Boeing is nowhere near that yet. The following table lists the first flight data for January. We use the first flight as a production proxy. [caption id="attachment_89420" align="aligncenter" width="561"] AirInsight[/caption] Renton was at 19/38 through yesterday (1/26/25). The MAX 8 and A320neo are equal so far. However, Airbus has a well-documented and fundamentally important lead in the A321neo over the MAX. That is not the outcome of current CEO Kelly Ortberg but reflects his predecessor's lack of vision. Can Boeing get the MAX 7 and MAX 10 certified this year? Perhaps. Even if they do, Boeing missed the current single-aisle cycle and must recapture market share on the next single-aisle iteration. Airbus does not have a testbed, and Boeing does, in the X-66A. To say a lot is riding on the X-66A is an understatement. Boeing got the 787 vs. A380 argument right, and there is every chance it has the correct next single-aisle strategy, too. The 787 is clawing back production and deliveries. The 777X flight tests are active again, but it is unclear just how well that program will do. It is five years late and may take longer to get certified. While Boeing still has some way to go before it hits the FAA MAX production limit, observers with skin in the game are confident. Ryanair believes Boeing could hit a rate of 38 this summer. The MAX program is Boeing's "bread and butter," enabling many other programs. It is job #1. Summary As Boeing gets MAX production and deliveries settled and humming, management can focus on the final two MAX certifications. Management can also focus on settling the 787 production and deliveries, though many issues are external supply chain related, like seats. Management can also focus on the 777X program, which, as the flagship, must be completed. The MAX is the cornerstone, and Boeing looks like it has now got a handle on that.

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