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Having updated new deliveries this morning, I noticed some items are worth sharing. We are 63% of the way through the year.
Airbus
- The A319neo is likely the Airbus model with the poorest value over time. Is the niche worth it? Is there even enough ACJ support for this model?
- The A320/321neo switch is remarkable. Since 2022, the A321neo has been in blast mode.
- The A220 program struggles at a rate below 5/month. The program is mature by now. Why can’t Airbus get this program sorted? A rate of 14/month looks unreachable.
- The A330-900 is doing surprisingly well.
- The A350-1000 program needs a bump in orders because the 777-9 is coming. The latest delay is not a show-stopper.
Boeing
- How fortunate Boeing is to have a stable line of freighters and the P8.
- The lumpiness in deliveries has to have customers frustrated.
- Getting the lumpiness fixed is a critical mission for the commercial aviation industry.
Tier 2 OEMs
- ATR has an effective monopoly, and yet deliveries are not marvelous. Has the market for turboprops withered? We don’t want to believe this, but the data does not support the great expectations.
- COMAC is winding up. They already match ATR for YTD deliveries and can only go up from here. The data shows we can expect 2024 to be their best year, but it might take a few more years to match Embraer’s levels.
- Embraer is having a good year. They are just over 60% of the way through the year and are already equal to 12 months of last year. As the company eats through its backlog, winning new E2 orders is crucial.
