Orders and Deliveries – Airbus vs Boeing

Here’s the updated model – all 25 pages.  We offer some notes below highlighting items that catch our attention.  The model has a long history, starting in January 2000.  This model is based on our Airbus and Boeing O&D models.

Notes:

• 2023 YTD sees Airbus/Boeing at 60:40 in orders.  How much longer can Boeing

  sustain this? A broken or even dysfunctional duopoly is a threat to both OEMs.

• Boeing was approaching nearly 50% on the deliveries page, but then we had MAX and 787 hiccups.  Reliable deliveries are crucial as the backlog stretches out seven years, even as operators are desperate to cut fuel burn and improve green credentials.
• On the second deliveries page, Boeing’s freighter business puts it ahead of Airbus – but this is a small segment because, with conversions, Airbus can start to close the gap.
• The Orders-Customers page shows Airbus has a broader geographic customer base. It also shows how crucial military business is to Boeing.
  • The orders-map page confirms the geographic statement above.
• The MAX vs NEO pages are worth taking time on.  The big takeaway is not quantity but quality – i.e., family to family. In our view, Airbus is a lead that Boeing can’t catch.  As Christian Schere has told us, he doesn’t have delivery slots.  The market is chasing the A321, and the MAX9 doesn’t compete effectively while the MAX10 lingers in the certification line.  On average, Airbus is getting paid more per delivery than Boeing, which is a crucial advantage in a commodity segment.
• The middle-of-market (MoM) segment is growing ( see MoM 6) because of traffic volumes and a pilot shortage. Airbus offers a product that works better in these circumstances.  The only crimp on Airbus deliveries is the supply chain. Boeing must also factor in product delays from fixes and a seriously delayed MAX program on top of the same supply chain stress.