Premium #156 – Are Recent Increases in Deferrals and Cancellations a Warning Bell for the Industry?

Last week, we saw two major aircraft order deferrals, with Philippine Airlines deferring a large order from Airbus, and then reports that Boeing is in talks with several Russian airlines regarding delivery deferrals. And we’re only in January. If this trend continues, the backlogs for the big two OEMs could push further to the right. With low fuel prices enabling existing aircraft to increase profitability, and signs that the lower oil prices could remain more stable as energy production shifts, order deferrals can be expected from carriers that might take one additional maintenance cycle with an older aircraft rather than replace it with a new one.

The Order Cancellation Trend