Premium #174 – How the CS500 Might Impact the Narrow-Body Market

With the CS100 and CS300 being shown at Paris next week, the question of what’s next has arisen at Bombardier.  A recent article in the Wall Street Journal talked about the possibility of a CS500, which the industry rumor mill indicates has already been discussed with potential customers.  What might a CS500 look like, and how could it impact the competitive dynamics in the narrow-body marketplace?As shown by the graphic above, which was created shortly after Bombardier registered the trademarks for several potential CSeries models, the family has significant potential for growth.  Given the history of the 50 seat CRJ100 growing to 70, 90, and 100 seat models during its existence, it would not be a “stretch” to think that 110, 135, 160, 185, and 210 seat versions of the CSeries

are possible.

The CS100 is nominally a 110 seat aircraft, and the CS300 a 135 seat aircraft in all economy 32 inch pitch configuration.  Using the same 5 row, or 25 seat increment, a CS500 would accommodate 160 economy seats in all economy, or 150 in two-class configuration, the same as the A320 with similar pitch.  Note that the CS300 can accommodate 155 with thin-line seats and tighter 29” pitch, and a CS500 would accommodate 180 in a similar high density configuration.

In many respects, the CS300 was the genesis for the A320neo family, as the smaller CSeries, with new technology engines, wings, and aerodynamics, was more efficient than the older A320 and 737NG designs.   Introducing the neo enabled Airbus to cut the gap roughly in half, and keep the 15% larger A320neo even with the new technology CS300 in seat-mile economics.  Now fast forward and make the CS500 a 160 seat aircraft, virtually the same size, and the seat-mile economics suddenly change in favor of Bombardier again.