DBEA55AED16C0C92252A6554BC1553B2 Clicky DBEA55AED16C0C92252A6554BC1553B2 Clicky
May 29, 2024
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Our data source recently updated their information through the year-end 2017.  We have been mining this data to look for trends in airline fleets across the globe to see which items jump out.  The commercial aviation is subject to several shocks that impact operations.  Most of these shocks are exogenous and unpredictable.  Nobody can plan for them, even though rational managers know these shocks will come.  Consequently, we note that effective managers are risk-averse and make decisions that can handle these shocks.  But even as these are risk-averse managers, there also those who know these risks and are willing to take a gamble.  This is especially the case with new airlines, who for some reason think they are going to be “different”.

Let’s start with the in-service fleet. As we can see the growth has been constant, if at varying rates over the period.  This chart supports the other evidence we have seen showing the industry has been in the midst of a “super-cycle”.  Despite all the attention widebodies get, the industry is built by far on single-aisles.  It is also worth noting that much of the widebody growth has been in the Middle East where three airlines have shown voracious appetites for big planes.

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Addison Schonland
Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.