Premium #309 – Airbus, Boeing, Single Aisle Orders and Rate 60

Back in the heyday of the order boom, as recently as 2015, the talk was of Airbus and Boeing going to single aisle monthly production rate 60.  Airbus promised production monthly rates at 50 from 2017.  Then it went to rate 60 by 2019.   Meanwhile Boeing

said it would accelerate monthly production to rate 52 in 2018.

Are these production rate plans viable as we enter 2017? We’d say no.  Look at the following chart.  It is true that both OEMs have increased production steadily over many years.  Even though the 2016 data is only through November, we estimate production for both at 490 for the year.  This essentially flat compared to 2015.  To justify the growth to rate 50 means orders must spike to a level that justifies more stress on the supply chain.

Orders have been good – we have been through a super-cycle in orders.  This was obviously driven by the recent fuel price spike.  However, the market corrected as new oil supplies from US and Canadian based fracking sources changed the equation.  Aircraft orders reacted equally fast as the next chart illustrates.