Premium #323 – For OEMs, how predictive is the first quarter to the rest of the year?

• Do large aircraft orders in the first quarter portend a good year, and a paucity of orders a poor one?
• How does first-quarter book to bill ratios play out over a typical year?
• Can we draw any inferences from quarterly data that is meaningful?

We examined O&D data for the last decade and analyzed the degree to which accurate inferences can, or cannot, be made for several variables.  Using O&D data from 2006-2016 from Airbus and Boeing

, we’ve determined that certain elements are less predictable than we previously imagined.  The order book shows peaks and valleys in first quarter orders at both manufacturers over the last decade, as shown in the following chart, but includes only the first two months of 2017.

While we’ve always known that airframe manufacturers and airlines announce big orders at major airshows, the key assumption is that orders can occur at any time of the year, and announced as they occur.  We weren’t expecting to find seasonality in orders.  But analyzing order data, it appears that orders in the first quarter are typically much less than the 25% of annual volume one would expect, as shown in the chart below.  Both Airbus and Boeing were under the line in nine of the 11 years we analyzed in the first quarter.  This means that even with a poor first quarter for orders (as Airbus is having this year) it does not necessarily portend a poor annual performance.