2024 09 30 08 29 05
It’s the last day of the third quarter, and here is our preliminary new delivery tally for the month and YTD. Boeing might deliver something today, but we’ll only know tomorrow, and it won’t move the numbers much.
We project a potential industry delivery rate of 1,216—about 2022 levels, which is a good outcome given the industry’s state. However, if Boeing’s strike continues much longer, that number will shrink, which will not be a good outcome.
One item to note is the COMAXC performance. This OEM appears to have accelerated production, the same story as Embraer. The most recent E195-E2 delivered to Porter Airlines took five days from the first flight to delivery. Typically, Embraer takes roughly 21 days or three weeks of test flights.
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There is no long history here, but the backload deliveries are transparent. This year could spike even more when Boeing’s strike settles, as it must. Airbus always spikes at year’s end.
Speaking about Boeing, here are YTD deliveries by customer
.The importance of MAX deliveries to Boeing is evident. Southwest is seeing far fewer deliveries this year compared to last year. Happily, the Chinese are retaking deliveries for Boeing. The Indians can’t replace Chinese orders yet. However, we estimate India likely needs to quadruple its fleet over the next 20 years, so there is a lot of Indian upside.
Here’s our summary dashboard.
Summary
It has been a tough year with the supply chain struggling to find enough skilled people. This seems to be the biggest challenge and has trickled through the entire industry. Remember when everyone was talking about a pilot shortage? Well, it’s bigger than that now. Reports like this one from 1H24 have not dated at all. It feels like later on the same day.
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