10 4 2022 8 08 37 AM
As we move into a new month, we offer an estimate of the YTD deliveries through the end of September. What we see is illuminating. The single-aisle MoM segment keeps growing.
The chart below lists the single-aisle deliveries starting with January 2022. The monthly total is our estimate of single-aisle deliveries. The official OEM numbers should be published after the 10th. Meanwhile, in our calculations, the colors depict the two big OEMs. The dashed red line is the thing that catches our eye. YTD single-aisle deliveries are running at 32%. That is a significant number.
Why? If we look at the historical numbers for Airbus and Boeing orders and deliveries, the 32% is way off trend. We have a model that has been tracking O&D since 2000. The data is updated when the two OEMs publish their numbers. Take a look at the dashed line in the chart below. The average for the period through August 2022 is 18%, close to half of the 2022 number. As the chart illustrates, the single-aisle MoM has seen market growth for some time.
What is our view on this? Two items seem to fit:
- The airlines believe the pilot shortage is here to stay for a long time. They are upsizing to move the growing traffic with the flight crew they have. Moreover, this size of aircraft should reduce costs.
- Lately, Boeing is doing a lot more MAX10 business, even with a probable delay in certification. Boeing and its customers see the same trends and Boeing is doing what it can to push its premier single-aisle MoM to the fore. It is determined to get back the duopoly balance.
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