As we approach 2019, and the imminent announcement of what Boeing has in mind for the 797/NMA, let’s consider what drives the business case for the aircraft, and the economic performance that will be required to make it successful.

We know that the aircraft will be in the 225-275 seat range. The industry rumor mill indicates that airlines are expecting a price between $65-$75 million, meaning a list price in the $130-150 million range. That is a key driving factor for Boeing’s business case analysis, leading to the question of whether enough airplanes can be sold at that price to create a profitable program? That will depend, in turn, on how much technology is required to achieve performance targets, and whether the supply chain can reduce costs if Boeing can push through a third round of Partnering for Success.

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