The Indian market doesn’t miss Go Air. at all

India's Go Air has seen ups and downs. There have been the "on again, off again" bookings. Now, we have a lessor seeking parts that have been "robbed." The airline can't get moving after going under and blaming Pratt & Whitney and its GTF engine. As we learned in Paris, the airline failed to pay P&W soon after the first deliveries. Given the pressure P&W faced, it makes sense that the engine OEM focused on assisting customers who paid for engines. The BBC has this take on what went wrong at the airline. We have been tracking the domestic Indian air travel market since 2015. The market growth has been outstanding. Take a look at our model, which details this market. We believe India's air travel market won't miss a beat with Go Air out of the business. The model clearly shows the market's massive growth Despite awful public policy reaction to the pandemic (India is as guilty as every other country for overreacting), the recovery is a V-shape This recovery occurred even after several waves of COVID India's domestic market is so large it qualifies as a Tier 1 in our domestic traffic model Even as Go Air collapsed, the timing was perfect for a startup, Akasa, to step in. Akasa was able to exploit Boeing's need to deliver MAX8s that were meant for China. As the model above shows, Akasa came from nowhere and took off. Whereas Go Air averaged around 160 passengers per flight, Akasa was at that level in May when Go Air stopped flying. Moreover, whereas Go Air was at 4,911 flights in April, Akasa was at 3,322 in the same month. Consequently, the emergence of Akasa was serendipitous for India. Traffic was able to flow without delay or market capacity shortages. In addition, the rapid growth at IndiGo as it takes more A321s into service meant that seat capacity was growing anyway. India's economy is vibrant, and air travel is growing fast as the economy develops. The revitalized Air India pressures competitors to be vigilant and stay focused. Even as the overall load factor declines to the low 80% level, the market growth will likely ensure flights are typically above breakeven. India's airlines face expensive fuel (even with Russian oil flooding the market at deep discounts) and fuel taxes. The government is opening up the market for new airlines to start flying beyond the borders. Embraer is discussing opening a FAL in India, following aerospace investments from Airbus and Boeing. It's go-go time for India's aviation and aerospace sectors.

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