The US big four and aging fleets

US airlines are like all others—they need new deliveries. Fuel burn savings are essential, and MRO savings are very attractive. Other technologies, such as Tamarack's active winglet, could be deployed faster than waiting for those new deliveries. Then again, anything that requires the FAA to certify is not attractive these days. What do the big four fleets look like? Using FlightRadar24 data, we assembled this chart. [caption id="attachment_85080" align="aligncenter" width="580"] FlightRadar24;AirInsight[/caption] Each airline has an aspect of its fleet that is aging and probably fuel-inefficient. Each segment of these fleets warrants a review; for example, regional fleets are in a tough spot. There is no solution other than new E175s. American's 777-200 fleet is over the key 20-year barrier and likely needs replacing. The ideal replacement would be 787-10s, but no moves have been made because the cost would be significant. Delta's A320s are significantly aged and ex-Northwest. Delta is focusing on A321s, which will likely replace the A320s. Delta's 757-200s fall into the same category. Its 767-300s are also significantly aged, with A330-900s replacing them. The 767-400s are close behind, and the A330-900 conveniently can replace that, too. Notice that Delta has a wide range of models, and simplifaction would be a desirable outcome. However, the orders it has in place for A220s and MAX10s, for example, are not coming at the required speed to replace older models. Delta's TechOps plays a crucial role in keeping its aging fleet functional, but even their skills can't fix everything at some stage. United faces a similar issue to Delta with 767s. It also has 757, A320, and 737- 700 issues. Like American, it also has aging 777-200s, and its 787-10s will solve some of that challenge. Getting the MAXs and 787-10s faster is United's biggest challenge in overcoming fleet aging. United's frustration is well documented. Southwest's challenge is the 737-700 and the absence of the MAX 7. The solution is not close to hand, which must be frustrating. That anxiety is unwelcome amid facing off against an aggressive new shareholder who is impatient for results. Beyond the big four, the aging issue extends considerably. The chart lists the US fleet in July 2024. [caption id="attachment_85082" align="aligncenter" width="580"] FlightRadar24;AirInsight[/caption] Breaking down the fleet into segments, we can see the obvious models needing replacement. Regionals - It must be noted that the CRJ900 and 700 are only reaching half-life. So there's a lot of time left on the frames to keep going. However, fuel burn is a big issue for regional jets, so we see American and United involving themselves with ZeroAvia's thinking. [caption id="attachment_85083" align="aligncenter" width="580"] FlightRadar24;AirInsight[/caption] Single Aisle—This is the largest market segment and warrants the most attention. Airline consolidation has led to mixed fleets. Given the number of cycles these models perform, 20 years might be considered the outside limit. Yet we see several models well over that. The need for replacement is great (over 1,000), and a superb opportunity is being missed. [caption id="attachment_85084" align="aligncenter" width="580"] FlightRadar24;AirInsight[/caption] Twin Aisles—Here, we suggest 20 years as an ideal replacement spot. Over 200 aircraft might be replaced if possible. Again, this is a big opportunity that is being missed. [caption id="attachment_85085" align="aligncenter" width="580"] FlightRadar24;AirInsight[/caption] Why is the opportunity being missed? The OEMs and their supply chains are unable to meet demand. Alternative technologies cannot be deployed easily or quickly enough. The Great Retirement impact continues to wreak havoc. The skilled labor shortage impacts new builds and MRO shops, so impacting the entire silo. Embraer is the OEM least impacted by these issues, which is still affected but much less. Embraer benefits from better vertical integration and, consequently, tighter control over its supply chain.

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