The trend still looks “up”, but less so than a week ago.  Page 1 shows the recovery in terms of flights and passengers per flight is up.  But those passenger numbers are very wobbly.  The surge in pandemic numbers these past few days won’t encourage air travel bookings.   Page 2 shows the 90-day forecast and it remains at 60 passengers per flight.  This is an average but which airline can break even at 60?  Adding flights won’t necessarily mean that number remains at 60.   Page 3 shows an important change – last time we ran the numbers July 2020 showed an average of 60 per flight. This update has it down to 59.   Small change, but not in the direction the industry needs.

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Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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