Transactions July 2018 YTD

Through July transactions are at 2,341 for YTD July 2017 and 2,012 for YTD July 2018 - a 14% drop. This decline is across the board by type of dealer. Despite the strong lead Boeing has in orders and deliveries this year, the market for Airbus is more active in 2018. Both Bombardier and Embraer are seeing a substantial decline in transactions this year. Even ATR is seeing less activity this year. Looking at Boeing first - The swing to MAX8 from -800 is accelerating. The -900 and MAX9 look rather inactive. Next Airbus - The secondary market for the A319 is active; three times more than the -700. The A320 is also seeing more activity this year. Interestingly, despite what we read in the media (especially the Indian media) Airbus is delivering A320neos faster than Boeing delivers MAX8s. Notice also that the A321 market continues to be far more active than the -900 market. And the A321neo market is also trouncing the -900/MAX9. Airbus is seeing seven times more activity than Boeing in the combined A321/neo and -900/MAX9 segment. In the widebody market, we see that the 787 remains the most active model. Boeing has seen a slowdown in 777-300ER activity and also in the 787-8. But the 787-9 is sparkling. For Airbus, the A330-200 is the more robust market. The A330-300 market may be waiting to see what happens with the A330-900 which is about to see first delivery. Despite what Airbus says, the A350-900 is behind last year's numbers slightly. But when we add back the A350-1000 the program is slightly ahead which is likely how Airbus would explain this. The A380 plods along. The recent entrance of HiFly in the segment bodes well as they quickly found a customer in Norwegian. Norwegian's experience with the A380 demonstrates that they were not well prepared for it and maybe fumbling for a while until they figure it out. If, as we expect, Norwegian figures out how to better exploit the A380 and they start to impact the JFK-European market than it is quite possible we see more disruption. Norwegian's success will encourgaeHiFly to hasten with more A380 deals. HiFly's CEO told us he's looking at potentially acquiring six A380s. We have removed the C Series from the chart as it now goes as the A220 and in future will appear in the charts above under Airbus. This move highlights the shrinkage at Bombardier though. They are behind on their own numbers from last year and far behind Embraer. That said, Embraer is also off its 2017 numbers. Embraer is primarily a regional jet producer highly dependent on the E175 and the US regional market. Although Embraer produced big deals at Farnborough they are likely to see Airbus and the A220 moving strongly ahead while the deal with Boeing continues to percolate. Losing JetBlue was a major blow to the E2 program. There are going to be a significant number of E190s in the secondary market seeking customers. Which only makes E2 deals more difficult as Embraer may have to take these E190s back to secure new orders.

No results