It has been sunny over Airbus and stormy over Boeing for some time now. This is likely to remain the case for some years yet. However, Boeing has been thrashing Airbus in two markets for a long time, with no end in sight: the freighters and military markets. Using our delivery tracker starting January 2000, we show the following data. [caption id="attachment_82794" align="aligncenter" width="347"] AirInsight[/caption] The Boeing advantage is about 9:1. That Airbus has not been able to break into this market over such a long time begs several questions. It certainly is something Airbus would instead not want to discuss. It is a massive market failure. Airbus's success in the other, far more significant, commercial segments provides excellent coverage. Airbus tried using the A300 and had some success. Then it tried the A330F and had a tepid market response. Now it's the A350F, and there has been some excellent reaction - at last! In the military market, Airbus has seen success with its MRTT. But the world's #1 tanker customer is the USAF and Airbus has not managed to break in. It has come close, but no deal. Politics are more influential with military sales. If Airbus added an A330 line in Alabama would that have swung its fortunes? It's tough to tell. The political clout from Alabama is not as powerful as the states with Boeing tanker business. Airbus has won many, if not most, military tanker deals outside the US. This shows that the A330MRTT is a viable project. The MRTT program will likely move to the A330-800 and offer an even more compelling aircraft with a very long range. The table below lists the models both OEMs have delivered through March 2024. [caption id="attachment_82795" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] Notice how much business Boeing has won by offering its 737-800A, the baseline airframe for several military models. Similarly, Boeing has done great business with its 747F, 767-300F and 777F. Remarkably, Airbus has seen little success because it is a robust market. If the A330 saw off the 767 in airline use, why did Airbus take so long to develop the A330F conversion program? Amazon is helping change this, but it took so long. Boeing's success in single-aisle models is not US-driven. Customers include Australia, the UK, and Turkey. Australia, the UK, and several other 737-800A customers deploy A330 MRTTs. Why did these customers not have an Airbus option? Airbus did offer an A319. [caption id="attachment_82796" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Airbus[/caption] The picture shows the aircraft in Indian colors. [caption id="attachment_82800" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Naval News[/caption] The Indians ultimately bought the Boeing 737 P8. Is this only politics, or is there something else at play? Given its long range and size, the A220 offers an excellent platform for maritime patrol. Here is a suggestion from an aviation insider in Canadian colors. [caption id="attachment_82797" align="aligncenter" width="494"] Keesje[/caption] This aircraft could have been the option Canada ordered, but it selected the P8. Although a much smaller market than the commercial side, the military has fewer price-driven customers than commercial airlines. This, therefore, is an attractive market. Why can't Airbus get any traction? It can't be system integration because suppliers will work with any platform. This is seen with the Embraer versions using the regional jet airframes and Bombardier and Gulfstream airframes. A final point is that while Boeing has a lock on these markets, it also faces challenges. It has several 777Fs waiting for engines, and its 767F program sunsets in 2027 because of engine technologies. Even with these hurdles, Boeing's lead is unmatched.
