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February 14, 2025
United Airlines
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United Airlines fourth quarter profits were released today, and the company’s performance exceeded Wall Street expectations.  The company reported adjusted full-year pre-tax earnings of $4.6 billion, and an adjusted pre-tax margin of 8.1%.  Adjusted diluted earnings per share came in at $10.61, at the high end of the $9 to $11 guidance provided at the start of the year.

United Airlines

Fourth Quarter Results

The 2nd and 3rd quarters are typically the most profitable for airlines, with the 4th and 1st less profitable.  United this year reported a very profitable 4th quarter.  The carrier posted a total operating revenue of $14.7 billion, which was 7.8% higher than the comparable quarter year-over-year.  Capacity grew 6.2% year-over-year, and adjusted pre-tax earnings for the quarter were 1.4 billion with a pre-tax margin of 9.7%.  Adjusted net income was $1.1 billion for the quarter.

For the full year, adjusted net income was $3.5 billion on revenues of $57.1 billion, with liquidity at year-end of $17.4 billion.  United generated $9.4 billion of operating cash flow and $3.4 billion of free cash flow in 2024.  It is well positioned to continue its share buyback program, which included $81 million in the fourth quarter.

The United Next strategy continued to produce improvement in results, and the carrier is now very well positioned in its key hubs in Newark, Dulles, Chicago, Denver, and San Francisco.   The focus on international flying in its strategy is constrained by the lack of availability of wide-body aircraft, which according to CEO Scott Kirby are now as or more difficult than the availability of narrow-body aircraft.  The carrier was planning on adding 100 airplanes in 2025 but has lowered its estimates to 81 aircraft, 71 narrow bodies, and 10 wide bodies.  Continued delays with the 737 MAX 10 at Boeing have pushed those aircraft deliveries into 2026.

United’s delays in 2024 were mostly the result of ATC staffing, which accounted for more than 60% of the delays experienced by the carrier.  CEO Scott Kirby is hopeful that the shortcoming will be addressed by the incoming Trump 2.0 administration.

The Bottom Line

United and Delta continue to lead the industry.  Each booked revenues of about $57 billion in 2024, and Delta reported a full year income of $5.2 billion, more profitable than the $4.6 billion at United.  But United has been growing faster, and both carriers are looking at $6 billion in earnings for 2025 with optimistic financial forecasts.  American, the other carrier of similar size, falls well short of the big two in financial performance.

United is doing well, and its international strategy is paying off.  If things remain the same, that performance should continue into 2025 and beyond.  But as we all know, things in aviation never remain the same for long.  If tariffs impact international travel, all bets are off.  For now, things look positive at United, which completed a record year and is forecasting another in 2025.

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author avatar
Ernest Arvai
President AirInsight Group LLC

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