US to Africa traffic

Africa is a place of promise and mystery for most people.  For US outbound travelers, it has not been a significant market. For example, between 2010 and 2023, the market has been under 1 million travelers from the US each year.

As with most of our analyses, we modeled data to show this. The model is below for your review.

• Page 1 & 1.1 – The charts show the market’s extent and limited spread. There are few African countries with direct air service to the US. There has been a good recovery after the pandemic, and we expect to see 2023 as one of the best years on record.
• Page 2 – The freight market follows passenger traffic trends. However, it is worth noting the significant traffic carried by Ethiopian. Also, note how much more freight United is carrying than Delta. This is despite Delta flying typically larger aircraft.
• Page 3 – Readers can select African destinations with direct US air service. Going through each city, it is clear where the action is – Cape Town.  While Johannesburg may show a larger number, it may be eclipsed by Cape Town.  Another market that seems to be underperforming is Luanda.  There is talk that Angola’s national airline, TAAG, has planes to serve the US.  Given the limited bilateral access to Cape Town

  from the US, future growth between the US and Cape Town (and Johannesburg) benefits from any service TAAG can provide.  Whereas the air traffic to Luanda has typically been oil workers from Houston on charters, opening up commercial passenger services would also be a boon to TAAG and Angola.

• Page 4 – Here, we list the freight traffic, and it is clear that South Africa is the major market.  However, Ethiopia, Morocco, Nigeria, and Kenya all offer competitive volumes.