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With 2Q25 added to the T2, here’s our updated public model. With 2Q25 now included in the DOT T-100 Segment data, we can track how US airline strategies are evolving — from fuel burn to fleet shifts.
The model consists of three industry-level pages (pages 1-3). Thereafter, we have a page for each of the 11 reporting airlines. Avelo isn’t big enough yet to get on the list.
The airline page offers several charts that provide a picture of how the business is doing over the period. There is a menu to select markets -if a selection generates blank charts, that means the airline does not report any data for that market. These are non-domestic markets.
Key items
- Fuel Burn & Efficiency Trends
- US airlines continue to see improved fuel burn as the fleet is updated. One of the most impressive things to see is Southwest as the MAX 8 impacts and the 737-700 retirements kick in.
- Page 1 shows the improved fuel burn, but also indicates that airlines are slowing down in terms of miles/block hour.
- Page 2 shows flights are getting longer, also helping with fuel burn.
- Stage Lengths, Load Factors & Upgauging
- Load factors remain strong across the board. But these have started to soften of late; however, industry rates stay above 80%. The change in what passengers are buying is also interesting and not reflected in this data.
- Page 2 shows the upguaging trend remains strong. Upgauging is a negative signal for small communities at risk of losing air service. For example, Southwest now averages 162 seats/flight. The former small city ally is no longer as much of an ally.
- Interactive Performance Model
- Page 3 offers an interactive model when you use the “play” button at the bottom left. You can also click any balloon to see how that airline performed over the period. Some airlines show wild swings. Balloon size equals the number of flights.
- Notice that three airlines have significantly longer stages than the rest. On the other hand, among the reporting airlines, Southwest has significantly shorter stages.
- One thing to check out is clicking on each of the Big Three to see their movements – you too might be surprised to see this, as we are.
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