sales forecast clipart 8
The US DoT T-100 traffic data for 2024 has been published, allowing us to update several models. Here’s one that looks at domestic US traffic.
- Select an airline to see how it performs and what its forecast looks like.
- While the overall performance shows industry recovery in full swing, the same can’t be said for several airlines.
- Winners: Alaska, Allegiant, American, Frontier, Spirit, United
- Losers: Delta, Hawaiian, JetBlue, Southwest,
- Two airlines warrant special attention for their success, United and Frontier.
The lower chart focusing on load factors provides a nuanced view. As aircraft have grown larger, the load factor has softened somewhat. However, when airlines are selected, the results vary widely. Note, for example, Frontier’s very positive traffic outlook but less impressive load factor result. Frontier has been acquiring A321s at a rapid pace.
On the other hand, Hawaiian’s traffic chart is unimpressive, but its load factor results look promising. JetBlue’s and Spirit’s outcomes are similar.
Southwest’s performance is noteworthy because the airline is undergoing radical change. Absent free bags and with fares as pricey as the competitors, what is the attraction? This airline will be interesting to watch because key attractions are gone.
United also warrants attention. This airline soared post-pandemic. Traffic has been strong, and load factors have held up better than expected. When compared with Delta, United looks far better. Has Delta lost its magic? Even American looks better off.
Tectonic shifts have become important in the US domestic airline market, consisting of a “Big Four” and several competitors. Does Southwest have to acquire a competitor to match American, Delta, and United better? And if this is so, which competitor might that be? Alaska may be too big to digest. But JetBlue is likely less so. Can Spirit continue as is, or do they give in and merge with Frontier? Such a merger creates a colossus at the lower end of the market. And what of Breeze? How much headroom does the market offer before they run into markets they can’t compete in?
Avelo and Sun Country are not reported here. Both are small airlines flitting between markets, trying to avoid competitive trouble.
Even with such a large and mature airline market, the US domestic system remains a work in progress.
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