busy taxi
For this week’s Friday data fun, we share a model that displays the big four US airlines by fleet types and average age.
Please the menu on the left to select aircraft type.
Notes:
- Regionals—Southwest has none, so its chart is blank. But among the other three, the 50-seaters remain active. This segment is an opportunity for an OEM. Many communities need air service but don’t warrant it because 50-seat regional jets are too expensive. The rumor is that DHC is toying with an update to the Dash 8-300. Other options, such as the ES-30, could work if and when they reach EIS. Meanwhile, even a Tecnam would work in economic terms. The question is, why are operators not exploiting the opportunities?
- Single-Aisle is ~75% of the fleet and is the most important.
- American Airlines—Here, we see several ageing A320 family models left over from America West and US Airways. The MAX 8 deliveries are coming slowly, while A321neo deliveries are coming steadily. There does not seem to be a clear reflecting strategy in this segment. It has been some time since there was a message on fleet strategy.
- Delta Air Lines—there is an obvious strategy here. Airbus A321neos come fast and furious, and so do A220-300s. The ageing fleet of Airbus A320 family are leftovers from Northwest and are replaced as new deliveries arrive. The A220s are replacing the 717s. The A321s replace the 757s, and because this looks like the majority of Delta’s single-aisle fleet, they offer a general upsizing.
- Southwest Airlines—here, we see a steady stream of MAX 8 changing the airline’s network. Southwest used to be a majority 737-700 operator, but now the MAX 8 and 737-800 are the majority. Southwest’s network is not as flexible as it once was, when it could exploit smaller markets. The absence of the MAX 7 impacts the flexibility. This allows the likes of Avelo and Breeze to find niche markets. Meanwhile, Southwest’s fleet renewal is the most aggressive among these airlines. Here is what we were thinking about Delta’s fleet pre-pandemic.
- United Airlines—The ageing models come from a combination of Continental and legacy United fleets. The newest models signal where United is headed. Like Delta, there is a move to upsize. Delta and United have large MAX 10 orders to boost this trend further.
- Twin-Aisle is a smaller fleet and excludes Southwest.
- American Airlines has the smallest fleet because it was the most aggressive in retiring models during the pandemic. Notice how much younger American’s fleet is compared to its peers. It did not help that American focused on the 787, which saw delivery delays. This lack of lift slowed capacity growth to exploit the international traffic recovery. Several years ago, pre-pandemic, we looked at what might occur. The pandemic threw out all those plans.
- Delta Air Lines—With its fleet renewal, Delta switched from Boeing to Airbus, which was a good move because Airbus maintained a steady delivery rate. The relatively younger fleet brings better fuel burn and more capacity to exploit the international traffic recovery—a double win. The ageing 767s are being replaced by A330neos, which offer better economics and capacity.
- United Airlines—We have a Boeing-focused fleet divided into previous and current generations. Like American, United’s fleet renewal slowed as 787 deliveries were disrupted. The disruption would have been less if United had taken delivery of the A350s on order. To its credit, the 787-10 shows the best economics in the twin-aisle segment. This was a smart choice for United and looks like an optimal replacement for ageing 777-200s. United’s twin-aisle fleet is the largest and oldest among the three.
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