A duopoly delivery ratio guide to industry health |

Looking at this ratio helps to illustrate the condition of the duopoly. And this condition is critical because, as we have written several times lately, the health of the entire commercial aviation silo is at stake. Consider that the duopoly delivers ~93% of every new commercial airliner. If the duopoly sneezes, the silo gets pneumonia. Consequently, it is not a stretch to say the industry's health depends on the duopoly's health. The number of Airbus deliveries for each Boeing delivery calculates the ratio we illustrate. We have two charts to show this ratio. We want to see a ratio of one -ideally, one Airbus is delivered for each Boeing. That is a stable duopoly requiring a stable supply chain. One is the ideal ratio. Single Aisle The chart shows some spikes over the long period. Spike 1 occurred in November 2008; honestly, we can't recall what this might be. Spike 2 is the pandemic and MAX grounding. The dashed line is the trend, and the orange line is the average over the period. [caption id="attachment_85795" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] The trend shows that Airbus has steadily improved its delivery ratio, averaging 1.6. Post-pandemic, the ratio changed from relatively close to 1. This suggests that Airbus improved the ratio after the pandemic as Boeing's MAX deliveries went through several stops and starts. There is more to this, though. Airbus has the A321, which the market has gone for in a big way, and Boeing's MAX 10 remains uncertified. Here's a link to our view on the A321neo published earlier. Twin Aisle This segment is a Boeing stronghold. Boeing's twin-aisle aircraft, starting with the 747, have tended to be winners and segment dominators. Boeing has been delivering freighter versions of these aircraft for decades. Here, we expect to see a ratio of less than one, as Boeing overpowers the segment. [caption id="attachment_85797" align="aligncenter" width="580"] AirInsight[/caption] However, we see an average ratio of 1.2 and an upward trend. The slope of the trend is lower than for single-aisles, as one expects. Post-pandemic, we see that the lack of the 777X and delays in 787 deliveries favored Airbus. This is not because Airbus aircraft were in more demand, as with single-aisles. Instead, Boeing's production problems with the 787 and 777X flight test delays drove the ratio in Airbus' favor. Summary The duopoly is unbalanced, and its impact is widespread. This is chiefly a Boeing problem, but it does not help Airbus. Boeing's instability is roiling the supply chain, and Airbus is suffering, too. Nobody's a winner.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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