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Daily Insight: Tuesday 18 June 2019: NMA – between a rock and a hard place

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News

Speculation at The Air Current indicates that Boeing has not yet decided on the NMA, and continues to have difficulty with the business case.  The launch of the A321XLR at Paris has eroded another 31 potential sales as of the first day of the show, with more to come as the A321XLR is a better 757-200 replacement than the Boeing 737 MAX10.  By the end of the week, we should know a little more about how many A321XLRs will be ordered.  AirLease was first, MEA second.  JetBlue is rumored to be next in line.

New reports indicate that Boeing is leaning towards a larger version of the NMA than previously speculated, while others simply point to the lack of a decision and shrinking market.

Analysis

The real question is whether there is an adequate market for the NMA, which in Boeing’s case is a 767

replacement that would be about the same size as the 787-8, but lacking the long-range capability and the attendant excess weight.  From a replacement standpoint, the Boeing 767-300 is the target for Delta, United and American in the US market.  But is there an international market for an aircraft of this size?  The A330-800 fits that category, at about 253 seats, but has not sold as well as the larger model.

There were no big announcements from Boeing today on the commercial aircraft front, reflecting the current problems with the MAX, the week-end 787 fire suppression controversy, delays for the GE9X powering the 777X, and continued study of business case for the NMA.  Some in the media are making this out as a disaster for Boeing, but that simply isn’t the case.

Boeing has a crisis with the 737 MAX that it is working through, and restoring that aircraft to service has become the company’s priority.  The company is still working on the NMA, and is open to rebranding of the MAX.


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