Premium #235 – The ageing US long range twin fleet

Two weeks ago your correspondent experienced a second significant operational delay within a year because of a technical aircraft problem. Same airline, similar aircraft, same EU departure airport. The first time was annoying; the aircraft had to have an engine starter replaced after pushback and this took 45 minutes, with everyone seated, on a hardstand. Most recently, it was a similar aircraft (same airline) but this time the mechanical fault was hydraulic. The second time was much more annoying - a two-hour delay at the start, which then led to a missed connection adding another five hours to my trip. Sitting in a 17-inch-wide seat for that extra time is cruel and unnecessary punishment. What do the world’s top tier airline fleet’s look like? Among the Europeans, the selected fleet looks like this at 2Q16. Typically fleet age is around a decade old. Among the Asian/Oceania the 2Q16 selected fleet was as follows. Many airlines have young fleets and these brands are known for high service levels. Among the Middle East, the 2Q16 selected fleet was as follows. The list includes the ME3 which are famous for service and the most modern aircraft. The ME3 fleet is much newer compared to other airlines. The US airline aircraft that broke was a long range, twin aisle, twin engined aircraft that is dating fast. (Even the pilot said so) The table below lists the US airline fleet of widebodies. The age profile of the US fleet is eye catching compared to their competitors. Focusing on the twins used by these airlines, the average ages are 12.4, 15.8 and 13.7 years respectively. All three fleets include aircraft from merged fleets from other airlines. But these fleets are noticeably older than overseas competition. The US airlines use these aircraft as workhorses, which they are. But like workhorses, they get old and tired and then they break. These breaks annoy passengers. While the Contract of Carriage is mainly about protecting the airline, customers do not like paying 100% dollars for less than 100% of what they are expecting. Boeing produces a Statistical Summary of Commercial Jet Airplane Accidents which provides evidence of how hard fleets are being worked. Old aircraft, like old people, require more healthcare. According to the FAA Special Airworthiness Information Bulletins database, commercial aircraft have good track records. The FAA also publishes lists of ADs (Airworthiness Directives) that offer interesting guidance on issues the FAA has found that need attention by operators. Here is a list of 106 items for the 767-400ER and 282 items for the A330. Ads are an interesting source of insight, but they vary in seriousness. The NTSB is another source that provides insight into aircraft issues, for example this link lists 37 items for the A330 and this link shows 166 items for the 767. Getting any kind of detail on aircraft breakdowns is tough. The US On-Time database only covers domestic flights. Using the Form 41 database, one has to accept notorious and purposeful variances in data quality. The following charts illustrate the amount of spending by airlines on engine and airframe maintenance per flight hour. We show the 767-400ER and A330-200 to illustrate the point. One would expect a monotonically increasing maintenance cost as an aircraft ages, as we see on the A330, but that didn’t happen for the 767-400 fleet. This could be because operators want to “run out” the last of the hours available without going through the expense of an overhaul. Operators seem willing to pay more on their A330 fleets because these aircraft are younger and are likely to be kept in service for longer. The research appears to confirm that US airlines are spending increasing amounts of money of older aircraft per flight hour. This could be because the aircraft are ageing and breaking more often. No airline will spend a dime unless they have to – and US carriers are under strict rules from the US DoT and FAA. Old planes are not special unless they are in a museum. US airlines would do their customers a big favor by not delaying long haul fleet refreshes. The table below shows the current widebody aircraft on order by the US Big Three. The US Big Three have been slower, compared to their international competitors, to undertake long-haul fleet refreshes. They would argue they had to digest industry consolidation and repair balance sheets, plus focus on single-aisle refreshes (especially at American). This, sort of, rings true. The fact is that during the last “wave” when the A350 and 787 were announced, the Big Three did not move. Northwest (now part of Delta) was a 787 launch customer. The 787-8s listed for Delta are these very aircraft but Delta seems to be in no hurry to get them. Delta followed a deliberate strategy of buying older aircraft, buying an oil refinery and generally countered industry norms - its financial results show it made the right bet. But even an "old plane" strategy must run out. In conclusion, we have seen the US Big Three complain vigorously about foreign competition, especially from the ME3. The ME3 are not only are way ahead with their fleet, they also offer a level of customer service unheard of among American airlines. Old aircraft among the US Big Three have seen cabin refreshes numerous times but these are still way behind the state of the art. United and Delta have both announced new premium seating packages – an apparent realization they need to compete. The Skytrax surveys show passengers notice; US carriers rank poorly. Gorgeous cabins are great. But these have to be deployed in aircraft that don’t breakdown. Fleet renewals are necessary to stay “in the game”.

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