ATR is seeing demand for 2.450 new turboprop aircraft in the next twenty years up to 2041, it says in its latest market forecast that was released on the second day of the Farnborough Airshow. The French/Italian airframer is seeing strong demand for regional aircraft. ATR sees demand for 2.450 new turboprops.
The forecast is the first since 2018 when the aviation industry looked quite different. Covid was unknown, sustainability less prominent in the public debate, and the economy didn’t suffer from high oil prices, inflation, and labor shortages. Back then, ATR’s forecast was for 3.020 turboprops until 2037, of which 2.390 in the 61-80 seat class of the ATR 72 and 630 aircraft in the 40-60 seat class of the ATR 42. The demand for full-freighter turboprops was estimated at 460.
Fast forward to Farnborough 2022, and ATR has presented updated numbers. Based on a GDP growth of 2.4 percent and traffic growth of 4.9 percent per year, the forecast includes 2.450 new turboprops for the next twenty years. The total number of turboprops will grow from 1.950 this year to 2.660 in 2041. Of these, 450 are aircraft that are in service. At 1.500 aircraft, demand for replacement is driving the fleet projections, with 710 required for growth.
The 61-80 seat class will remain the biggest, with a requirement of 1.830 aircraft compared to 620 aircraft in the 40-60 seat category. The biggest market will be Asia Pacific excluding China, with a demand for 975 aircraft. Of these, 775 will be in the bigger category. Europe, including Russia and the CIS states, accounts for 400 aircraft, of which 320 are the size of an ATR 72. Latin America and the Caribbean see demand for 325 aircraft, of which 245 are in the 61-80 seat category. China requires 280 (175 larger aircraft), North America 240 (150 larger), and Africa and the Middle East 230 (190 larger).
E-commerce is the driver behind the booming demand for freighters. ATR has upped its forecast to 550 full-freighters, of which 510 are in the bigger category and forty the size of the ATR 42. These will be both new and converted freighters. By comparison: last year, the turboprop freighter fleet was 380 aircraft. The biggest markets will be China, Southeast Asia, and Latin America.
Fabrice Vautier, Senior Vice President Commercial, said: “The forecast demonstrates that essential connectivity is needed both for emerging and mature markets now and in the future. The biggest driver of demand is airlines modernizing their fleets to meet the highest environmental standards while making air transport accessible to all. Replacements will account for seven out of ten new aircraft, the remainder will be deployed to enhance regional mobility and connectivity through new routes.”
On Wednesday, ATR reported a provisional agreement (heads of agreement) with lessor Abelo for ten 72-600s and confirm an order for ten -42-600S STOL aircraft that was placed by Elix Aviation in 2019. Earlier on the day, Japan’s Oriental Air Bridge (ORC) announced n order for one 42-600. This follows the Letter of Intent for a total of 36 aircraft from Japanese start-up Feel Air that was announced on Day 1 of the airshow.
Active as a journalist since 1987, with a background in newspapers, magazines, and a regional news station, Richard has been covering commercial aviation on a freelance basis since late 2016.
In 2022, he has gone full-time freelance. Richard has been contributing to AirInsight since December 2018. He is also writing for Airliner World and Aviation News. From January 2023, he will add a part-time role with Dutch website and magazine Luchtvaartnieuws. Twitter: @rschuur_aero.