The Best Passenger Recovery In 2021? Mexico!

Who had the best passenger recovery in 2021? Mexico! And we can prove it. According to stats provided by the Mexican Communications, Infrastructure, and Transportation Secretariat (SICT), in November 2021, Mexico recovered 95% of its pre-pandemic traffic numbers, which is an incredible bounce back from the COVID-19 pandemic. An incredible passenger recovery by Mexico Mexico has had open borders throughout the pandemic. The government never established any kind of travel restriction through the air, allowing airlines to recover as soon as demand allowed it. Even though Mexico suffered the cease of operations of Interjet and Aeromexico’s Chapter 11, the country has been resilient. In November 2021, the airlines operating flights in Mexico (both domestic and international carriers) flew 8.04 million passengers, a 95% recovery compared to 2019 levels. Nonetheless, not all markets have recovered equally. The two main highlights are the domestic market and the US-Mexico market. Mexico’s domestic carriers handled 4.38 million passengers in November 2021. That number represents a 94% recovery compared to pre-pandemic trends. The country’s big three, Volaris, Viva Aerobus, and Aeromexico, are already above their pre-pandemic traffic levels, with a 26%, 22%, and 1.4% growth, respectively. Nevertheless, Mexico did suffer the exit of Interjet, which was the third-largest carrier in 2019. Internationally, though, Mexican carriers are still behind their pre-pandemic traffic levels. Overall, Mexican airlines have only recovered 72% of their international pre-pandemic passengers, but we have to make a distinction. Aeromexico has a recovery of 79% and Interjet is no longer flying (in 2019, it was Mexico’s second-largest international operator). Meanwhile, Volaris has grown 19%, but Viva Aerobus and Aeromar have had astounding growths of 392% and 513%, respectively. [caption id="attachment_61076" align="aligncenter" width="580"] Photo: SICT.[/caption] The US-Mexico market Last week, we published our exclusive interview with DFW’s Executive Vice President, John Ackerman. He spoke about the Mexican market’s importance for the airport in the last two years. But not only DFW has seen a surge of demand from the Mexican market. It has happened all over the US. The Mexico-US market is hotter than ever. In November 2021, US carriers handled over two million passengers between the United States and Mexico. That number represents an 18% increase compared to 2019. So what about the remaining international market in Mexico? It is also doing ok. According to SICT stats, carriers from Latin America, Canada, Europe, and Asia had recovered 82% of their pre-pandemic traffic levels to Mexico. The bottom line The question we should be asking is if there is another country in the world that has had a passenger recovery quite like Mexico in the last year? Most likely, there isn’t. Moreover, two of the three leading Mexican carriers are back to profit. While the country still has many challenges coming its way next year (notably, Aeromexico’s Chapter 11, Mexico City’s new airport dilemma, and FAA’s Category 2 status), there are lessons to be learned from the Mexican airline industry recovery. The Government’s decision not to close the country has benefited the airline industry. It has also had a negative impact on the number of COVID-19 infections and deaths (Mexico has one of the highest tolls of the pandemic). But, the Government’s inefficacy to regain Category 1 status with the FAA will eventually hamper the recovery of the Mexican airlines. Time’s ticking, and US carriers are reaping the benefits of Mexico’s lack of action. Additionally, the success of Mexico City’s new international airport (IATA code NLU) is still uncertain. There are only four domestic routes confirmed for this new airport (set to open on March 21, 2022), and that’s a big disappointment. Will Volaris, Viva Aerobus, Aeromar, or even Aeromexico launch more routes from NLU? Only time will tell.

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