Delta Air Lines’ fleet renewal – the A321 doesn’t quite get there |

Delta Airlines has long been the US airline that flies the wings off its aircraft - they do not chase the new models at entry into service. Over the recent years, Delta started a fleet renewal process that saw them become the C Series "anchor tenant", now the A220. Delta also followed up its first A321 order with a lot more. In doing so, Delta deployed the highly effective Airbus "one-two" punch of the A220 and A321. Let's look at what this has brought about at the airline. The chart comes from one of our aircraft metric models. Looking at the X-axis which lists average seats you can quickly assess that Delta's selection to date has been highly focused on replacing older aircraft. The size of the balls is the number of flights, so the larger the ball, the more flights that aircraft has undertaken. The data is through September 2021. The A220-100 is an ideal replacement for the Boeing 717. But because of its economics, the A220-100 is helpful in replacing some regional jet services. A highly disruptive tool is the A220-100. The A220-300 is a natural A319 replacement as we can see. Both A220 models show a slight improvement in load factor - but this may be pandemic driven due to schedule shrinkages. The A321 appears to be the ideal replacement for the 757-200. But we see the A320 and 737-800 looking for a "fix". Could this be waiting for the A220-500? Our bet is yes. The 757-300 off by itself should not be ignored. Well, that looks at the situation from one perspective. Looking at the same fleet by average stage length and cost per set/mile we get this perspective. There is a dynamic at play here that a static chart does not convey. So if we track the performance of the 757-200, for example, we see this. The 757-200 has been used consistently by Delta for stages of 1,200 to about 1,500 miles. Delta's 757-300s have been used between 1,200 and 1,700 miles in case you were wondering. Why focus on the 757? Because, as both charts show, Delta has not used the A321ceo the same way. This suggests Delta is either still learning about the A321's capabilities, or perhaps, the A321ceo - of which Delta took the final delivery on December 16 - is not an optimal replacement for the 757. Delving a bit deeper we offer this table to more perspective on operating costs for the Delta single-aisle fleet. As we have seen before, people and aircraft age the same way - they cost more as they get older. The 717 is clearly an issue for Delta. The A220-100 is a solution, but Delta needs to squeeze out much better performance from the A220-100. The improvement between the A319 and A220-300 is also rather thin. Delta has some work to do optimizing its A220 fleet. Looking at the 757 and A321 we see the latter is marginally better than the 757-200 but not better than the 757-300. When Delta starts operating the A321neo we expect to see a bigger improvement. But for now, on a per-seat basis, the A321ceo is not a shoo-in replacement for the 757. Which brings an old issue back to the forefront. The NMA is needed. The following chart illustrates clearly that Delta is an ideal target customer for Boeing as so much of its traffic is operated by MoM-sized aircraft. The A321 has not proven itself as the ideal replacement for the 757 at Delta. It is close and the A321neo will bring it closer. Even so, Delta might need something larger. As we move to ever more sustainable aviation, a larger aircraft is probably greener per passenger, than a smaller one. Will Boeing step up to this opportunity?

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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