The Embraer 2022 Market Forecast was released at Farnborough, updating the 2021 forecast provided at the Dubai Air Show last year. The forecasts are quite similar, with a slight uptick in demand over the next 20 years for the under 150 seat aircraft market. Let’s examine the highlights comparatively.
New aircraft deliveries for aircraft up to 150 seats is expected to rise from 10,900 to 10,950 units, a modest increase of 0.46% from the last forecast. The latest forecast shows 8,670 jets, an increase of 30 units, and 2,280 turboprops, an increase of 20 units. The expected dollar value remains unchanged at $650 billion US over the forecast period, as shown in the following table:
The Embraer 2022 Market Forecast indicates that geographically, demand is expected to show additional growth in the Asia Pacific region, which includes China, and Latin America. The Middle East region has fallen significantly in RPK growth projections from last year to this year for aircraft under 150 seats.
The Embraer 2022 Market Forecast projects jet deliveries over the period to increase in North America and the Asia Pacific region over their prior forecast Projections for the Europe and CIS fall slightly in the new forecast. Embraer’s latest two forecasts for jet deliveries are compared in the table below:
Similarly, Embraer projects that turboprop deliveries will increase for Asia Pacific and Africa, while shrinking slightly in North America and Europe (including CIS). Embraer’s latest two forecasts for turboprop deliveries are compared in the table below:
The Bottom Line
The Embraer 2022 Market Forecast projects a full international recovery to pre-pandemic traffic levels by 2024, and has slightly increased the demand for small jets and turboprops in its forecast from its 2021 Market Forecast. While not a major change, it is reflective of optimism in the industry at Farnborough 2022. Embraer’s full 2022 Market Forecast can be downloaded here.
