Bombardier announced Latvian flag carrier Air Baltic converted its remaining seven purchase options for CS300 passenger jets to a firm order. This brings Air Baltic’s total firm order to 20 planes under an agreement initially signed in December 2012. Based on the list price of the CS300, Bombardier says this firm order is worth about $506m.
Bombardier has faced headwinds with its CSeries – Airbus (especially) and Boeing have not made doing business easy. The Air Baltic decision, before its first delivery, to firm all its options is a strong signal of confidence. Since Air Baltic is already a Bombardier customer, the decision looks even better. For the airline, they must be confident enough that this bet is low risk.
Airlines are consolidating the world over. This means the market is shrinking and every deal matters. Airbus and Boeing are doing what they can to stymie Bombardier and Embraer from gaining a foothold over 100 seat segment. We have explained previously why it is to be expected that the big two will do whatever they can to protect their oligopoly. While Embraer is seen as a lesser threat, since its E-195 E2 cannot be stretched, the Bombardier CSeries is almost certainly going to be stretched to 150 seats and probably called a CS500. Which is why Bombardier attracts opprobrium from all sides.
Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.
“…the Bombardier C Series is almost certainly going to be stretched to 150 seats and probably called a CS500. Which is why Bombardier attracts opprobrium from all sides.”
Well put Addison! They cannot attack the plane so they attack the company instead. The C Series poses a genuine threat to Embraer, Boeing and Airbus, all at once. Bombardier never expected the competition to be so fierce, and, I have to admit, neither did I. BBD now has 250 firm orders. I hope they will get pass the 300 mark before EIS, which is fast approaching.
This shows how most options eventually get converted to firm orders. Bombardier has 250 firm orders and 428 other ‘commitments’. If 70% of those commitments get converted then the actual firm order total would be close to 550.
There is a rumour going around that Delta may be the launch customer for the CS500. Delta’s MD-88 seats 149. This is the size that the CS500 would be in a standard configuration.
No matter what, Bombardier is doomed to fail, its not the aircraft, its the 100-150 seat market that peaked in 1991 at 330 units delivered and for 9 years has been in decline, with 53 deliveries last year by all 4 OEM’s, while the A320/B737-800 deliveries have been around 700 per year, that is where the demand has gone.
Airbus A319neo (50) and B737Max (60) have 110 orders, the A320/321neo have 4,354 orders (87:1 ratio), the B737Max8/9 have 2,871 orders (48:1 ratio), it says it all the 100-150 seat market is just too small today.
Airbus has only 1% of neo orders in this segment and Boeing has only 2% of its orders in this segment, so they are not exposed to this poor segment, Bombardier is exposed 100% to this segment, and that is going to its demise with the CSeries.
Low demand and very low pricing, will make profitability unattainable for Bombardier, leading ultimate failure at some point. It just lost a big deal at Horizon Air against the E175, and losing Q400’s at Republic Airways and Horizon Air, the last major Q400 operator sin the US.
The CRJ’s have 79 orders in backlog good for 21 months of production at 2015 rate, and the Q400 is down to 39 orders in backlog, good for 16 months of production at 2015 rate.
The CSeries will be alone very soon to carry the Commercial side at Bombardier, but it will be a losing battle, it dared to challenge Airbus and Boeing in their highly lucrative 150-220 seat narrow-body market, and they are determined to kill it before it gains a foothold as they will need to face the Chinese C919 and Russia’s MC-21 in 4 years time.
No matter what you do you cannot change the market dynamics, many good aircraft have failed for being too late or too early into a market segment (e.g. Dassault Mercure, VFW614, Saab 2000, Dornier 328/Jet, CV-990, etc.).
The CSeries will fail because it is in the WRONG market at the WRONG time, that simple.
Not sure how you can say BBD is doomed to fail. Their total revenue for aerospace including Bizjets is $9B. If they produce 100 CSeries a year, that adds at least $6B of additional revenue. With a big order from Delta for the CS500, BBD might have to put in the second CSeries assembly line.
If the deal goes through it will be a win-win situation for Delta and Bombardier. For sure the price will be very attractive for Delta and that means BBD will make little money on a potentially large quantity of aircraft. On the other hand a large order from Delta would be the foundation on which the C Series future could be built. Delta has been flying Bombardier jets for almost two decades now. An upgrade towards the C Series would therefore make a lot of sense, especially if the CS500 is factored in. That means Delta would eventually operate BBD aircraft from 50 to 150 passengers. The status of Bombardier would change overnight just like the status of Embraer changed instantly when Jet Blue ordered the E-Jet. Here is how the present situation appears to me: The C Series is begging to be stretched into a CS500 model, Delta is begging Bombardier to launch it shortly, and Bombardier is begging Delta to place a big order now.
The Horizon deal was not a loss as it was said a the time the E175 was the preferred choice of aircraft as they already fly the type. So this is just “noise” in your comment.
With just Delta, United and American there are 360 MD80/90 aircraft and an additional 112 A319s that need to be replaced. I have not included the American A319s in this number as they are taking new ones now. But there is the old US Airways A319s that will need to be replaced and I don’t see American lining up for the A319NEO.
The CS500 will happen as it is an easy cheap stretch as the CS300 wing did not fail in the ultimate load testing.
The duopoly will end with Bombardier, Comac and Irkut all entering the segment. Boeing is already under financial pressure with the 787 and KC-46 programs. Airbus is in better shape to financially defend but the backlog success will hurt them and allow the other 3 to gain orders.
There is nothing wrong with the 100-150 seat market. If the aircraft offer had been better the sales would be much stronger. If the A318, A319, B736 and B737 were not successful it is simply because they are not good aircraft, period. The only decent aircraft in that segment was the DC-9 which, like the C Series, is a five-abreast. Five is the optimum number of seats per row for the 100-150 category and that is why the DC-9 was a highly successful aircraft. That being said, the width of the cabin also plays an important role. Bombardier had to make the C Series as confortable as the smaller Embraer and the larger Airbus and Boeing. It now beats them all.
Yes, but Global, Learjet revenue decreasing and the Q400 and CRJ in their final 2-3 years at best, come on the writing is on the wall, and I have not even started to talk about the G7000 which will struggle for orders in the $75+ million category, a segment that ACJ and BBJ have and the single aisle market averages around 16 units per year, so no market there.
Just using numbers, they don’t lie.
Delta’s Richard Anderson said it right, “at the right price” that means less than $30 million a piece for an airline like DAL, Bombardier cannot do deals like that and make money, as they have no other products to fall back on, where as Airbus and Boeing can do it, better economies of scale but also the ability to reduce prices on B787/B777 aircraft as well, this is the BIG league and Bombardier is a minor league player that cannot compete for too long.
Gulfstream is doing fine with the G650, so I don’t see why Bombardier would not also be successful with the new Globals. It is true that the world economy is showing signs of weakness but the Global segment has always been lucrative for BBD and I don’t see how this could change appreciably by the time the 7000/8000 come to the market. That being said, if the American economy remains stronger than the world economy Golfstream could have a short-term advantage. But sooner or later the newer and superior Globals will prevail and bring badly needed cash to the company.
The only thing wrong in the 100-150 seat segment is that Airbus and Boeing do not have an aircraft that can compete in the space.
Sorry, the numbers show you are wrong, there is something wrong with the market segment, numbers do not lie, the market is in decline for 9 years now to only 53 last year.
It has nothing to do with the aircraft that are or are not good, if an airline needs a 125 seater it got one, it the market that determines demand it has NOTHING to do with the aircraft, that is basic marketing.
Some how people think the CSeries will do well because it is such a “game changer” well wake up it has 250 orders of which 150 are real order after almost 8 years ?
The airbus A319neo and B737Max7 have only 110 orders out of 7,345 single aisle neo and Max orders, 1.5% of the orders come from the 100-150 seat market, that is 67 A320/321neo and B737Max8/9 orders for each order in the 100-150 seat market. numbers do not lie.
Bombardier has been blinded by the myopia of its own product yet if they faced REALITY, it is that noone is buying, there 7,000 units over 20 years in the market is a fantasy, the segment peaked in 1991 at 330 deliveries, and the market is NOT coming back, its move don to 150-220 seats.
You cannot change the market, just because you create a great station wagon, it doe snot mean it will sell well, as everyone is buying SUV’s and crossovers today !
The CSeries will die by 2020 at the latest, it is in a limited market, and low demand coupled to very low competitive prices means it is DOOMED, and that is just how it is, no matter people think, these are the numbers.
8 years and 250 orders ? wake up there is little demand for it. WRONG market at the WRONG time, and every aircraft is now going to be fuel efficient, the competitive advantage is gone, and even minimized by low fuel costs.
Your analysis would be valuable if the market forces were left to themselves, but this is rarely the case anywhere in the world, including the United-States. Some industries are simply too big to fail, wether they are large banks or aircraft manufacturers. And we never know, Boeing might itself need such a help in the not so distant future, over and above the generous subsidies, direct or indirect, it already benefits from. That is why Boeing will likely be around for ever, and so will probably be Bombardier. They both produce fantastic products that are vital to their respective economies. But like you have suggested it’s not easy to get there and even harder to stay there. Who would have predicted forty years ago that Boeing would be struggling while Airbus is thriving? I recognize that the situation at Bombardier is extraordinarily challenging, but it is not an impossible situation. The C Series is a fantastic aircraft and I expect the new Globals to be just as good. But the rest of the portfolio is aging and needs to be revamped. Boeing and Bombardier might not be in the same league but they appear to be facing similar challenges. Like the C Series for Bombardier the Dreamliner seriously weakened Boeing’s financial position (32 Billion in the whole). And like the Globals for Bombardier the 777X will make the situation worst for Boeing before it makes it better. And like the Bombardier CRJ the Boeing 737 is getting old and has already started to struggle against the competition. Like the CRJ in the past the 737 has defined the market it is in. But this is only good for a time. Unfortunately there is no 737 replacement in sight. So like for Bombardier the situation at Boeing might just get from bad to worst in the not so distant future. Wether you are a mouse or an elephant the struggle to survive is the same: it belongs to the fittest. But I remain confident that Boeing and Bombardier will adapt to the new conditions and will both thrive again in the future.
That is silly, airlines buy airplane they need, there not going to avoid the 100-150 seat aircraft if they have demand for it, come on that’s basic business, its not the product its what the market wants, if it wants a 100-150 seater airlines will buy them, and they have not been buying them as much as before, that’s just the facts, ignore them but you can’t argue with no facts.
Don’t forget the industry is changing real fast, and Airbus and Boeing are preparing for the new Comac C919 and Irkut MC-21, which will take away business in China and Russia, but before than they know they have to deal with Bombardier first, either way NO way can Bombardier compete with Airbus, Boeing, the Chinese government and the Russian government, it just doe snot have the economies of scale or financials to be in the BIG league and by 2020 it will be out of the Commercial aircraft business.
That is EXACTLY what I meant! It has nothing to do with numbers. It’s a question of products. And on that basis it could be argued that Bombardier owns that market segment (CS100/300), for it has no competition there. In the segment above that (CS500/700/900) Bombardier will be face to face with Boeing and Airbus. But in my opinion Airbus will be in a better position than Boeing when BBD will launch the bigger variants. That explains why Airbus and Boeing are so agressive right now. It has nothing to do with the A318/A319 or 737-600/700. What is at stake for Airbus is the A320 and for Boeing it is the 737-800. That is what they worry about. If oil prices were a little higher this would become evident for everyone to see. The situation could indeed change dramatically if oil becomes expensive again.
Dear doctor, your diagnosis of the CSeries market is solely based on historical facts. Your numbers are simplistic reductions of reality and it is known that they are lying on the reality and they say nothing that a reading position on a map. Obviously, you do not understand the market and its history when a new device is launched. Each time , what counts is the future : the future of the market for 100-150 seats and the future of an innovative aircraft.
Also, we are still awaiting your future vision of markets and the CSeries. The issues of money do not make a vision. To say that Bombardier executives are wrong is a feeble argument …
We shall see in 3 years where Bombardier is, but you confuse aircraft with high tech gadgets, the CSeries is no better than new Max’s and neo’s you have been sucked into Bombardier’s myopia, but with 250 orders in 8 years, NO ONE WANTS THE PLANE, the order book says a lot about demand.
Your reasoning is kind of circular and explains nothing: if the numbers are weak it’s because there is no market. With that kind of diagnostic my dear doctor there is no way you can possibly offer a cure, for you have declared your patient terminally ill. But there is nothing wrong with your patient (the market segment). All it needs to do is change its diet and start to eat good foods again (like the C Series). There are no laws of economics or physics that can explain, let alone justify, the weakness of the 100-150 passengers market. To flash bad numbers is a completely irrational way of analyzing reality. There are no bad segments, only bad aircraft.
OK, we’ll see I have been in this industry 35 years sales & marketing from small regional aircraft to big jets, so I have a totally different take on all of this, but it doe snot look good the for CSeries at all, time will who was right.
If there is no future in the 100-150 seats market, why then Boeing had to sell its 737-700 at 22 million dollars/piece to prevent Bombardier from getting an order from United Airlines? And why did Air Canada bought 45 new CSeries ? 250 orders in 8 years (+ the 45 from Air Canada) is not bad considering that the Airplane is still not in service. If I remember well, Airbus had approximately 300 orders when the A320 entered service.
I’m not going to say much beyond this; check out the fuel burn of an A319 vs. A320 and you’ll see why no-one is interested in either the 319ceo/neo or 737-700//737-7.
You are very ill-informed, you do not know the facts just ‘talk’.
Over 1,458 x A319’s have been delivered and over 1,266 B737-700’s have been delivered NO WANTS THEM ???? what joke, And the great “game changer” has 250 orders of which 140 at best are real, that is an airplane few want, even the new Embraer E2’s, MRJ’s and SSJ have more orders then the CSeries, you just do not know your facts.
When you look at 1990 there was no market for a 50 seat Regional Jet it was only for Turboprops. Both Bombardier and Embraer had a pretty good run with them allowing them to move on to larger aircraft.
OMG really ???? with 250 orders ? what a joke, in the past 8 years 134 x E195’s, 225 x B737-700’s, 418 x A319 and 44 x CRJ-1000’s were delivered in that segment, decreasing year by year, an dhow does Bombardier dominate that segment when at best it will deliver 250 by 2020, yet has 140 ‘real’ orders today out of 250 PR “firm orders”.
Boeing and Airbus can discount this market to nothing and still be ok, as the 100-150 seat market is 1.5% of their Max/neo single aisle orders, so they have 98.5% of their orders where they do make good margins, Bombardier is stuck in a market with very low or zero margins and a low demand, any experienced and knowledgeable aviation executive knows what that means.
Consider the following: In the last few months, BBD has written off three-something billion of the CSeries program, corresponding to its original development budget basically, and transferred the remaining equity to an independent entity that is two-thirds owned by the Canadian government. A year ago, BBD argued emphatically that there is absolutely no way BBD would ever need government assistance, and today they argue almost equally passionately that it is absolutely crucial, “for the market confidence”, that the Canadian government assumes a controlling equity stake of the CSeries program, or rather the newly created entity to which the CSeries program has been transferred.
Sadly, what used to be (a badly managed) engineering program has degenerated fully into domestic politics and corrupt crony capitalism. This is not what aviation should be about.
Having worked for a number of years on Airbus’ single-aisle fuel systems I am well aware of what the actual numbers are.
But you go ahead – if it makes you happy, knock yourself out blabbering away about things you think you know about.
“BBD has written off three-something billion of the C Series program…”
Maybe they should have deferred the cost à la Boeing Dreamliner: 3 billion versus 30 billion is proportionate to the relative size of the two companies (which makes me wondering why Boeing fans are so afraid of Bombardier).
“…and transferred the remaining equity to an independent entity that is two-thirds owned by the Canadian government.”
The Canadian government has not yet made any investment in this project. So far only the Québec provincial government has taken a participation in the C Series: 49% of the CS100/300 programme, with a by-back clause. But it is indeed possible that in the coming weeks the Canadian federal government might take a similar equity, but nothing has been confirmed yet because of the political ramifications. This is a sensitive issue in Canada.
“…what used to be (a badly managed) engineering program has degenerated fully into domestic politics and corrupt crony capitalism.”
If it was a badly managed engineering programme the C Series would not be the engineering marvel that it is and the head of the programme would have changed many times since its inception. But Rob Dewar is still around eight years later and appears to be very proud of his baby while I am myself very proud of him. Did everything go well? No. Were any mistake done? Definitely. Would they do things differently in the future? Absolutely. What I have in mind in particular is the software of the aircraft. The C Series has over ten million lines of code and Bombardier underestimated the challenge of certifying this code. That is why the C Series is late. Perhaps in the future Bombardier will elect to do the work in-house, like Boeing and Airbus are doing, instead of contracting it outside. The inexperience and lack of expertise showed here.
The only thing I don’t understand in your post is the reference to the ‘corrupt crony capitalism’. The way this corporation has been created actually prevents corrupt crony capitalists from taking over the company in order to sell it back piecemeal. That is the difference between a capitalist and an entrepreneur. The latter builds companies and is driven by ambition while the former wants to dismantle them and is driven by greed.
Hurry up time for both, the $C going up face to $US since January. Now + $0.10
Who pay you to bashed Bombardier?
Compare the CS100 vs CS300 vs Boeing 737 (you can ad more) http://planes.axlegeeks.com/compare/299-300-488/Bombardier-CS100-vs-Bombardier-CS300-vs-Boeing-737-MAX-7#_=_
”CSeries Order A Win-Win For Bombardier And Delta” http://seekingalpha.com/article/3964285-cseries-order-win-win-bombardier-delta
”Can Bombardier extend CS300 to a CS500?” https://leehamnews.com/2016/04/14/can-bombardier-extend-cs300-cs500/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
A Message for our spin doctor: Bombardier = 125 Cseries to Delta
http://www.wsj.com/articles/bombardier-near-deal-to-sell-up-to-125-jetliners-to-delta-1460664819
The Wall Street Journal has a very credible rumor (Jon Ostrower has long had some very good sources) that Delta is going to order the CSeries. The CS500 is not mentioned. I would be extremely surprised if the CS500 is on the table. Bombardier’s finances are very tight, and won’t really improve for several years, as during the initial CSeries production ramp up, they will continue to lose money on each frame built while they streamline production and get up to a steady rate, as is the norm for all new aircraft. With any luck, we’ll see the CS500 launch in 2-3 years, and EIS probably ~3 years after that (maybe longer if it includes a new wing, which would radically change its market position). I’m not holding my breath for it before then.
First they need a deal with the pilots, which is going to federal mediation, as pilots want 40% increase over 3 years and DAL offer of 22 % was rejected, pilots in no mood to give in after years of giving away they are clawing back their concessions. Since DAL will operate any future 100-150 seat it has to have a deal with the pilots, Richard Anderon uses future shining new aircraft deals as a “carrot”, tried it last year with B737/E190 orders, no deal with pilots he cancelled the order.
There is a more complicated world out there then your WSJ.
Delta Air Lines Inc (DAL.N) has not decided which planes to acquire to renew its fleet of single-aisle jets, Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson said on Thursday, as various manufacturers appeared to be vying for a deal.
Delta spokesman Michael Thomas reiterated in a phone interview that no decision had been made, after the Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday afternoon that the airline was in the final stages of a deal to acquire up to 125 Bombardier Inc (BBDb.TO) CSeries jetliners.
TOO MANY PEOPLE JUST JUMP THE GUN TOO EARLY !
It’s only a rumour, but coming from John Ostrower it carries a lot of weight. John has an excellent track record and is very well connected with the industry. You say that the CS500 is not mentioned, but neither is the CS100/300. We may have to wait until the announcement to find out. According to the WSJ the order is for 75 firm and 50 options. Even if this order were to materialize as a mixture of CS100 and CS300 only, I am sure there would be a clause in the contract to convert any number of CS100 to CS300 and CS300 to CS500; as Delta needs various sizes in the wide range offered by the CS100/300/500. I have been expecting for a long time this kind of order with a mixture of all three variants. Bombardier is the only manufacturer able to offer a single type of aircraft covering the 100-150 passenger range with three variants. And if the CS100 is not as economical as the other two it offers performances that no other aircraft can achieve in terms of runway length, airport altitude and hot weather operations. For example Delta could use the CS100 in Denver, Colorado with no restrictions whatsoever in terms of capacity and range, in any kind of weather and temperature. But lets get back to the CS500. Bombardier is looking for another billion dollar in investment from the federal government of Canada in addition to the one billion in equity it has already obtained from the provincial government of Québec. I have always believed that this additional billion in equity will probably be used to develop the CS500. Actually, I would not be surprised if the federal government was waiting for a solid order for this variant from a major carrier, like Delta for example, which is one of the largest airline in the world. This would explain the long delay from Ottawa. So I would not be surprised if the equity investment from the federal government came around the same time as this order. I think it would be more than a mere coincidence. But this is only speculation on my part. There might also be the possibility that for publicity reasons Bombardier would be holding the CS500 announcement for Farnborough where the CS100 and CS300 were launched eight years ago. I don’t want to rejoice prematurely but things are starting to look much better than the were until recently.
Yes this is what happens when there is a little good news for the CSeries and Bombardier. The trolls from Airbus and Boeing get on the drum and talk about a ‘failed air frame’, ‘bit player’, ‘segment that does not exist’, ‘over budget’, ‘late’, and other derogatory comments. I almost feel they are paid to get on boards and make negative noise and do any thing to detract from their success. In the words of the ‘doctor with 35 years experience’ why would A/B have to ‘kill it’ or ‘deal with it before the Russians and Chinese’ if it is a non-existent segment, a ‘failed airframe’ etc??????? Whey would they save the cash and margins and allow BBD to fail on it’s own???? Once they bridge the current to the future they will not sell planes below cost.
As for the comments the airlines only buy what they need. That is a correct statement… but if nothing exists they will buy the next closest frame that meets their needs… even if it is not over a long time scale.
A/B are dumping their current frames to buy time for the MAX/NEO frames to reach mature production volumes. $22M for a 737-700??? Why would you defend like that if you are not scared?
Yes BBD are late and over budget but the Plane works… it exceeds the original specs….Can A/B make that claim with the 787? (30Bil in deferred costs? over weight and waiting on engine improvements to meet original specs) ,A350(too early but good execution should be a good platform) I think they have a winner, A380 (flop without government money and no market without the Gulf money) Customers are still pushing for a NEO with $40 oil… what does that tell you??? More of a status symbol than a profit maker… (‘I have a BIG Plane with 2 Decks!”)
If Delta buys the C-Series it would be a great platform to replace MD/717 aircraft and supplement the regional E170/175s. I fly 100+ times a year and it would be a great upgrade. The 100 seat segment works as I fly enough of A319s that are only 75% full or E-175s that are packed to the bins so a 100 seater would work on my routes…. just my personal data…. 20 years flying for business…
Just my 5 pesos.
Yes Normand. If ever Delta buys CS500, everything will change in the single aisle sector. All will be reviewed. Several airlines will redo their calculations and review their strategic plan with the MAX / NEO. And this mimetic effect will be very contagious. If my competitor buys 30, 40 or 75 CS500, what it means in the short, medium and long term for me? While acknowledging that the Bombardier production capacity is limited, which is next to play strategy hope to have a few? And everything will change in regional aviation. If Delta wants to increasingly manage itself this sector, this is the birth of a company increasingly integrated, providing synergies, economies of scale, new avenues for pilots, a flight network and extremely fluid connections. Probably at this level, the CS100 will find an important niche. Finally, everything will change, probably including some international flights in business class only with CS100 or CS300 to large, medium and small cities of the east coast US and some European destinations or the southern cities of the United States towards ‘South America. Yes, we have seen nothing yet. And everybody this morning is likely to sharpen their pencils and get out their calculators … and not a stethoscope!
The ultimate irony would be for the CS100 to bring such changes to the regional market, that this market will also change in favor of the E2-175 and Mitsubshi MRJ, two future aircraft types that don’t conform to existing scope clauses.
But the C Series has a range that E2 and MRJ can’t match.
Like the CRJ did 25 years ago, the C Series could very well create its own new market. Bombardier has envisionned this market : Like the Boeing 787, the C Series is aiming for point-to-point service, but with much smaller capacity. The C Series has not been conceived as a hub-feeder, it’s a mainliner. Too many casual analysts view it as a regional jet.
However, despite today’s positive vibes about the C Series, let’s not get carried away. These rumors could still be a ploy from Delta in a bid to squeeze pricing on B-737-700s. Boeing still has time to sweep in with a 3-for-1 sale.
When I say that “things are starting to look much better than they were until recently” here is how that would translate into numbers. The current C Series backlog amounts to 678 aircraft, including 250 firm orders. If Air Canada confirms its recent order for 75 aircraft, which is more or less in the pocket, it would add 45 firm orders, which would bring the total to 295. And if the Delta rumour is valid, which I think it is, the order book would jump to 803 units, including 370 firm orders. Those numbers are impressive for a brand new design that has not entered service yet. That is much better than the 737 and A320 did before they entered service for the first time, in 1968 for the 737 and 1988 for the A320. Two large orders from two high profile North American carriers, plus a highly publicized EIS with Swiss, a well respected European carrier that belongs to the prestigious Lufthansa group, would have a significant impact on Bombardier’s status. Last year the C Series was the star of the Paris Air Show and there is a good chance that this year it will gather all the attention again at Farnborough.
You say that “the C Series could very well create its own new market.” Here is how I view the way this could happen. Like I said above Bombardier is the only manufacturer in a position to offer three variants of the same type capable of carrying anywhere between 100 and 150 passengers. No one else can do this. The impact it will have is that all of a sudden people will realize that THERE IS a market in that segment after all. The idea I am trying to convey is that many airlines will start to appreciate the flexibility offered by a single aircraft type with three variants of various capacities and with different capabilities, in a previously neglected but vital segment of the market. This kind of flexibility already exists in the segments above the one served by the C Series family. Any airline that would operate a mixed fleet of CS100, CS300 and CS500 would benefit from this new flexibility. And when this will happen Bombardier will have indeed created its own new market.
Oui, Oui Normand 🙂 But let’s not get carried away… Il ne faut pas vendre la peau de l’ours…
That is a wise advice. Many times in the past we have had high expectations for the C Series that did not materialize. But as things stand out right now I take for granted the Air Canada order for 75 aircraft, including 45 firm. I also take seriously the Delta rumour because it comes from John Ostrower from the Wall Street Journal. He is a journalist that can be trusted. He could be wrong of course, but at least we know he would not have made this up. Because of his status people will go to him when they want to leak some informations. Or they will go to Reuters. In the old days they would go to Aviation Week. Or Flight Global, until John Ostrower left to go work for the WSJ.
It is a just “wishing” but the reality on the ground is different, the “game changer” is no longer, all have fuel efficient engines, and much lower development costs, and all developed with less money than Bombardier eve after writing off $3 billion.
Airlines buy solutions not a product, too many are in LOVE with the CSeries, yet obviously when airlines have run their numbers, they have chosen NOT to buy the CSeries, even Air Canada last year said it was satisfied with its E190’s, they just signed MOU due to political and legal pressures, and the MOU will remain until they see that entry into service and production are going as planned.
As a former airline executive, I would NOT touch the aircraft after all the troubles, the risk of being an “orphan” is very real, they have 140 ‘real’ orders, and 2 quality airlines, Lufthansa and Korean.
Sometimes you need to get one’s head out of the sand and see reality for what it is.
The Cseries will create its own market, so true. A and B and Embraer chose to follow but the true innovator here is Bombardier for choosing the right materials and the right sizes(versions 100&300) and last but not least:great range.No wonder many felt threatened by this newcomer.The Embraer 175(76-88 seat) will be much heavier with the re-engine version, the MRJ will face the same issues, a lot on investment for a dying market segment. For the first time Embraer will feel the squeeze, the Cseries will be to the E2Jet what was the Ejet to the CRJs. The market is moving up and the Cseries just found a nice place to grow!.
@Owl1725
You say the market is moving up, but the C Series bashers say the same thing as well. The market only goes where the best offer is; i.e., the most economical aircraft for a given requirement. Even if the A380 was the most economical aircraft in the world very few airlines can make good use of it because it reduces the frequency of their flights to any destination. At the other end of the spectrum the smaller jets like the CRJ200 are not competitive compared to turboprops like the ATR 42/72 or Q400. Between those two extremes all segments are good, with some better than the others, depending on capacity. There is indeed a sweet spot in the ‘not too big-not too small’ category, which had a tendency to move upward over the years. But it’s hard to say what is the exact reason for this. If we take the A321 as an exemple, it is selling better than ever because it offers outstanding economics. But if your customer base is not large enough you may be better off with the A320. Airlines need various capacities in terms of seat count and different capabilities in terms of range and performance. Any aircraft acquisition they make will inevitably be a compromise in terms of capacity and performance. And to make matters worst their own requirements may evolve over the years. For many decades they could only choose between two distinct offerings: Boeing or Airbus, with one systematically copying the other. For example when Airbus launched the neo Boeing immediately responded with the MAX. But more and more they will start to realize that they can enlarge their selection by looking elsewhere, like they have been doing for a number of years with Embraer. The latter took advantage of a large order from Jet blue to establish itself as a contender. All of a sudden there was an alternative that did not exist before. But it takes time to change the momentum. For a long time it has been A or B. From now on it will be A, B or C Series.
@Normand Hamel, your comments are right on, you know very well the Bombardier C Series. The bright future is starting now.
The latest news is they have very good contact in Iran with a private company. M.Beaudoin is negotiating now.
Compare to the ”Aviation Doctor” who make us sick. He don’t know These C Series, almost, at all. He make me laugh when he mention he is ”a former airline executive” I choke with my coffee.
To clarified many informations, made this link will help (you can put any companies /models you want. http://planes.axlegeeks.com/compare/300-305-435-488/Bombardier-CS300-vs-Embraer-195-vs-Airbus-A320NEO-New-Engine-Option-vs-Boeing-737-MAX-7
Hmmm looks like Delta bought only the CS100…. no market?
I think the follow on orders will be for the CS300 and possible the CS500 to round out the fleet….