GTF Status Update – New issues coming into focus

[UPDATE} From the Jetblue-Spirit Merger trial transcript regarding AOG due to GTF: “And so we're now up to 11 aircraft on the ground in December of this year, and we're going to 20 on the ground on January 10th of next year. And the projection right now is it's going to be at least 45 by the end of the year and 72 at the apex in 2025. So, on one hand, you could say maybe it could change, but everything that's happened seems like it's getting worse and worse.” There are two significant issues: The GTF disk is currently not an LLP. What is the mandatory replacement limit on a disk? Pratt & Whitney (P&W) was unclear about when they would stop seeing contaminated disks introduced into the fleet and phrased commentary around when they stopped making contaminated disks, leaving unsaid when less than full life by powder metal parts would no longer be used. Please use this link to see our previous stories on the GTF issues. Airlines are now informed otherwise and starting to release in their SEC filings that even their brand-new yet delivered aircraft will be impacted. Some background information is helpful: the GTF faulty High-Pressure Turbine Stage 1 and Stage 2 disks and High-Pressure Compressor disks were manufactured between 4Q15 and 3Q21, and most impacted engines were built in that time frame; however, disks with potential powder metal contamination risks continue to be included in new build engines and spare disks provided to MRO shops. The critical issue is life-limited parts (LLP). Currently, the GTF has a 10,000-cycle limit before the engine must come off wing to replace LLPs. If the FAA decides the disk is an LLP, currently it is not, then frankly, all hell breaks loose. If the FAA decides the disk is an LLP with 5,000 cycles, every GTF operator is impacted – even those with new engines delivered outside the 2021 cutoff. If there’s no FAA rulemaking, P&W can continue to control the process as it does now and effectively continue its current “workaround.” In the recent emergency AD, two different disk part numbers identified by serial number now have a reduced life of 5,000 cycles for parts in high-thrust engines and 7,000 for normal thrust. (Unclear exactly, but generally, A321s perhaps have a lower limit and some A320). Earlier, P&W said that PW1100G-JM engines with affected parts were limited to 2.800-3.800 flight cycles. We do not know that the disks otherwise would not have a life limit. It is unclear that the FAA is deciding the life limit beyond P&W’s recommendation in the Service Instructions. We presume that P&W does not have enough of these disk parts that are not life-limited by the recent AD, so they are using “new but very restricted life parts” because they are all they have. Otherwise, they would be unable to meet the needs of the Airbus production engines, airline spares, and MRO parts. RTX said in its 3Q earnings call that new parts would be available on new engines in 1Q24 and for retrofit from 2Q24. Using inventory It appears P&W’s “workaround” might be using inventory of tainted disks, some new, some used with remaining life both in new deliveries and in MRO shops through 1Q24 for OEM (essentially Airbus) deliveries and 2Q24 at MRO shops. Using these parts ensures that these GTF engines must come off in the future but at least can still be operated. The FAA can limit engines to "n" cycles before an "inspection" is required. The challenge for the NEO is that an inspection could require the engine to be pulled off the wing - and this would be seen today as an unscheduled event but could now become a scheduled event. Incidentally, the problem could extend to other P&W engines, such as the business jet engine lines at different production facilities. Since RTX had been saying the powder metal issue was resolved in 3Q21, what is now clear is that the parts, i.e., disks made before 3Q21, are still being installed into new engines for new deliveries and being shipped to MRO shops for repairs. This could suggest that full-life disk production and parts might be inadequate to support Airbus. Inadequately supporting Airbus is a big issue – with only 14 GTF MRO shops worldwide, and another five are coming online over the next 24 months. None of these facilities are in India, which has the most operational GTFs. The longtail impact is evident. Complicated forecasting We cannot assume an engine coming out of a complete overhaul, a serious shop visit to change out a disk, or an engine on an aircraft off the production line has a “full life.” This complicates forecasting when engines are grounded since P&W could install LLPs during shop visits. Operators and Airbus must seek clarification on this. Also, what warranties are P&W offering for a shop visit? On the other hand, if ~80% were sold with power-by-the-hour contracts, P&W must provide an engine when one comes off. Only P&W knows when engines per ADs can no longer fly because they have parts that are now very life-limited. Spirit hit hard Spirit Airlines said their A320neo AOG will double in 2025 over 2024. This must be due to using older contaminated rather than full-life disks in relatively recent new deliveries and overhauls. Airlines don’t always separate the reason for grounding for powdered metal or other causes. The typical engine in-service to spare ratio is 10 in service, one spare. That ratio is likely to drop considerably depending on any FAA rulemaking. We understand there are ~500 spare engines, and with about 1,400 aircraft, the flying fleet of engines is ~2,800. So apparently, the ratio of on-wing to spare engines is ~5.6x. NEO Engine Update from Spirit P&W recently notified Spirit Airlines that all GTF engines in Spirit’s fleet, including the engines slotted for future aircraft deliveries for a yet undetermined period, are in the potential pool of engines subject to the inspection and possible replacement, of the powdered metal high-pressure turbine and compressor discs. P&W provided an initial analysis of these engines' inspection and removal schedules. Based on this analysis, for the 4Q23. Spirit anticipates an average of 10 aircraft will be grounded. For 2024, Spirit assumes the average number of grounded GTF-powered aircraft will climb steadily from 13 in January to 41 in December, averaging 26 grounded for 2024. Indigo said on a conference call that GTF-powered aircraft grounding was “in the 40s.” Wizz Air said on Thursday it will have to ground 45 aircraft in the first quarter. Our database says 44 for Spirit, most defined as “stored," while Aviation Week’s database says 46 AOG for Indigo out of 136; our database lists 138 aircraft. Aviation Week says 355 in total grounded as of November 8. Our database says 326 as of November 6. The databases are close, but both may underestimate the real number. Matters are becoming less murky as time passes and better information emerges. Principally, what is less murky is that P&W is still using contaminated disks, which means they don’t have enough of these disks that have full-life.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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