DFW International Airport Runway 17 C 35 C 976935
The US DoT updated its data through August. Here’s what we have. Select an airline to see results for each listed one.
- The forecast is based on the following: 95% confidence interval, forecast 5 years, ignore past year.
- What we see, across the board, is that the airlines are off on their passenger numbers. The data is through August, and a third of the year is missing, which explains the steep decline. We expect the curve to show a lot of recovery.
- The load factor projection is really interesting. Airlines seem to be managing this metric well. More importantly, note how high the load factor is – over 80%. That means the industry should be profitable. As fuel prices soften, this further boosts profitability. Given the next administration’s “Drill Baby Drill” outlook, we expect fuel prices to decline further. Hence, Ed Bastian’s optimism.
- After the wage hikes, growing profitability is crucial. The following chart highlights the impact of fuel and pilot costs.
US DoT Form 41; AirInsight Things are looking up; traffic still looks robust. Load factors are substantial, even as US airlines add larger aircraft. Fuel costs are moderating, which helps offset higher labor costs. As always, it is a delicate balance that gets thrown off easily.
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