ICAO targets 5 percent CO2 emission reduction with SAF by 2030

The international aviation sector wants to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 5 percent by 2030 through the use of 5 percent cleaner fuels. This is the outcome of the third Conference on Aviation and Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3) held in Dubai this week. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) hails the global framework on sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) as “a giant leap to accelerate decarbonization.” However, the framework doesn’t guarantee that the target will actually be met. CAAF/3 was a follow-up conference on last year’s ICAO 41st Assembly, which adopted a long-term aspirational goal (LATG) to get the industry to net zero emissions by 2050. Building blocks to get there are the CORSIA offsetting scheme and, in the long term, new fuels such as green hydrogen produced from green energy or carbon capture. For at least the next two to three decades, aviation should reduce its carbon footprint by relying on SAF and other low-carbon aviation fuels (LACF). The conference in Dubai sought to find solutions for the obstacles on this roadmap, including the low availability of SAF and the huge investments that are required which developing countries can hardly afford. While aviation stakeholders like IATA and the Air Transport Action Group (ATAG) were pushing for more aggressive timelines for the production of SAF and LACF, the conference tried to strike a balance between this view and the concerns of countries that want a slower pace. This not only includes developing countries but also China and Russia. China already said in 2021 that meeting net zero targets in 2050 is far too ambitious and that this should be moved to 2060. ICAO says that the framework includes key elements for “a collective Vision for the clean energy transition, harmonized regulatory foundations, supporting implementation initiatives, and improved access to financing for related initiatives so that “No Country is Left Behind.” As ICAO Secretary General Juan Carlos Salazar said in a media statement: “Achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 will require substantial and sustained investment and financing over the coming decades. We must furthermore assure reliable and affordable support and capacity-building for those States with particular needs, as they will be depending on it to help play their part.” Commitment to a vision While progress has been made in Dubai this week, the global framework adopted by the conference is a commitment to a vision “to globally scale-up the development and deployment for SAF, LCAF, and other aviation cleaner energies.” “To support the achievement of the LTAG, ICAO, and its Member States strive to achieve a collective global aspirational Vision to reduce CO2 emissions in international aviation by 5 percent by 2030 through the use of SAF, LCAF, and other aviation cleaner energies (compared to zero cleaner energy use).” A draft version of the framework targeted a 5 to 8 percent reduction, but the higher ambition was not acceptable to various member states. The framework agreement continues: “In pursuing this Vision, each State’s special circumstances and respective capabilities will inform the ability of each State to contribute to the Vision within its own national timeframe, without attributing specific obligations or commitments in the form of emissions reduction goals to individual States.” This paragraph weakens the effectiveness of the agreement: without binding obligations, reaching the 5 percent reduction emissions target by 2030 is not guaranteed. ICAO says it will now prepare the vision, which “will be continually monitored and periodically reviewed (…), including through the convening of CAAF/4 no later than 2028, with a view to updating the ambition on the basis of market developments in all regions.” What exactly is done in the next four years to increase the production of SAF, LCAF, and other cleaner fuels is not defined, but the framework agreement says that this “will be integral to achieving the Vision and will rely on means of implementation including financing, technology transfer and capacity building.” The agreement also calls on other aviation stakeholders and states to plan, develop, and implement their own actions to help achieve the vision. They include airlines, airports, aircraft and engine manufacturers, and fuel suppliers. All have already committed to net zero in 2050 in their own declarations in 2021 and again around the ICAO Assembly in October 2022. Active role for states To get all countries on board, the global framework agreement calls on states and the industry “to promote and facilitate the effective transfer of technology, in particular to developing countries and States with particular needs, in line with the No Country Left Behind (NCLB) initiative, through comprehensive technical skills, manufacturing, processing and equipment, and noting the global benefits that come from increasing the supply of cleaner energy.” “In line with the No Country Left Behind initiative, States are urged to make regular and substantial contributions to the ICAO Voluntary Environment Fund and other in-kind contributions to support delivery of the substantial ICAO capacity building and implementation support program, aimed at assisting developing countries and States with particular needs, including, as a priority, for feasibility studies and technology adaption.” The conference sent out a clear message to investors to provide financing for the transition, which will require some $3.2 trillion until 2050, ICAO has said before. The conference said finding a solution for the financing requirements as laid out in the 2022 ICAO Assembly resolution “must be urgently progressed.” The aviation sector should engage more actively with states and public and private financial institutions “to mitigate the investment risk.” ICAO’s role will include that of establishing a Finvest Hub. Scaling-up the development Summarizing the outcome of CAAF/3, ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano said in a media statement: “The role of the Framework is to facilitate the scale-up of the development and deployment of SAF, LCAF, and other aviation cleaner energies on a global basis, and mainly by providing greater clarity, consistency, and predictability to all stakeholders, including those beyond the aviation sector.” “Investors, governments, and others all need greater certainty regarding the policies, regulations, implementation support, and investments required so that all countries will have an equal opportunity to contribute to, and benefit from, the expansion in the production and use of these fuels and the expected emissions reductions they will lead to.” Commenting on the global framework, ATAG’s Executive Director Haldane Dodd said: “This agreement sends a signal to the world that aviation is shifting away from fossil fuels and the traditional energy sector needs to commit meaningful flows of their vast profits and capital expenditures towards the energy transition, now. We need supportive government policies and supportive investment from the finance sector.” While targeting just a 5 percent CO2 reduction in 2030 through the use of SAF and LCAF, ATAG is positive that the ICAO scenarios will result in an almost complete replacement of all current fuels with cleaner fuels in 2050. Getting to net zero in 2050 also includes a 19 percent reduction through carbon offsetting and capture. “The agreement today helps to provide another layer of certainty to unlock the trillions in capital needed. Aviation has provided a near-term objective and the global framework. Now it is up to the finance community and energy sector to support the necessary infrastructure and start delivering SAF in ever-increasing quantities,” said Haldane Dodd. Need for non-punitive policies IATA Director General Willy Walsh said: “Governments have understood the critical role of SAF to achieve net zero emissions for aviation by 2050. The CAAF/3 results add a vision on the shorter, 2030, time horizon that is ambitious. To that end, the CAAF/3 agreement signals to the world in no uncertain terms the need for policies that enable real progress. There is no time to lose. IATA now expects governments to urgently put the strongest possible policies in place to unlock the full potential of a global SAF market with an exponential increase in production.” IATA specifically called on governments to introduce as quickly as possible supportive policies that enable fuel producers to take full advantage of local feedstock availability. “The goal is maximizing SAF production everywhere with positive, not punitive, policy measures. Airlines are ready with open arms to catch the resulting SAF production,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s Senior Vice President of Sustainability and Chief Economist. “CAAF/3 has again made it clear that aviation’s decarbonization will require the wholehearted and united efforts of the entire value chain and governments as we all focus on net zero by 2050. To be perfectly clear, where government money leads, private money will follow. It is absolutely essential that governments play their part, and we will certainly play ours.” Airbus said it welcomes the adoption of the global framework: “This shows the growing momentum of SAF among States as well as their willingness to work with industry to make SAF a key pillar of the decarbonization of the aviation sector as it progresses towards the goal of net zero emissions in 2050. Cooperation and support to developing and emerging countries is paramount in this global framework and Airbus will continue to act as a catalyst for the development of SAF across the world, working closely with ICAO and its member States, in particular through the ACT-SAF program,” said Julie Kitcher EVP of Communications, Corporate Affairs, and Sustainability.

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