Insight – How US Airlines are using the MAX

Now that the MAX is being delivered again, we think it might be useful to see how the aircraft is being deployed in service. Also to compare it to the NG - are there differences in usage and if so, what are these? Our post reviews how US Airlines are using the MAX. Using fleet data from ch-Aviation we note the following, There are 219 in active service at this writing. Other sources show different numbers, but we'll use the ch-Aviation data. In terms of orders, ch-Aviation has Boeing with a large US customer backlog. Note that lessor aircraft might not be deployed in the US. Boeing does not release model variants, and unless a customer publicly specifies its order, we have to wait for a delivery to discover which model actually changes hands. With that as a starting point, there are 1,781 737NGs in US active service. Of these, 1,590 (89%) are with US airlines. Boeing has a large customer base in this market. It would be reasonable to assume current 737 operators will transition from the NG to MAX. Given the pilot shortage, and the absence of any foreseeable solution, this makes sense. Indeed, this may be why Delta, with 200 NGs decided to order MAX10s. The costs of losing pilots and retraining are prohibitive and pilots know this too well. Next, look at how the NG and MAX are deployed in US service. The following chart shows the stage length these aircraft are performing over the period. The 700NG typically stays under 800 miles and is the workhorse at Southwest Airlines. The 800NG is deployed at American, Delta, and United. Note the typical stage length has been dropping over time. The MAX8, the 800NG's successor, has seen stage-length growth. The 900NG has been flying longer stage lengths and this has also been declining over time. The MAX9 on the other hand is seeing attempts to fly longer stages. The MAX models are more capable and operators appear ready to exploit this. In terms of seating, here is the typical seating for NG and MAX among US operators. Looking at the US history of the 737 fleet by ASMs (Available Seat Miles) we see the following. The chart shows how Boeing tweaked the 737 design to cover more of the market. Was this a successful strategy? Perhaps not entirely. As the chart for single-aisle aircraft below illustrates, Airbus was able to win an ever larger share of the market. Not only has Airbus taken over from McDonnell Douglas, but it has eaten Boeing's share, too. Boeing used to have 65% of the market and now is at 59%. How did the single-aisle market change? Breaking down the ASM numbers for the two OEMs helps explain this. The first chart lists the Airbus fleet. What is clear is that the US market took to the A321. The most recent data shows that 35% of single-aisle Airbus ASMs in the US are flown by the A321. Here is the same chart for Boeing. The Boeing 757 fleet aged and retired. From 86% market share in 2000, the 757 is down to 7%. The 737-900NG might have taken over from the 757-200 as it has a similar seating capacity. But that didn't happen. The MAX9 seems better placed to take up the mantle. However, fleet decisions are long-term focused and the MAX9 might be too late to have the impact it might have. Can the MAX10 play a role here? Almost certainly, and the Delta selection of the MAX10 is an example of how that might work. But Delta has hundreds of A321s active and on order. The MAX10 is late to the party. The MAX has big shoes to fill - the NG has been a great success but the "757-gap" is a real thing. Looking at current MAX operations in the US, we see some significant data published. Starting with ESG, we have the MAX9 as the greenest single-aisle aircraft in US airline service. This is truly a win for Boeing. The MAX9 has nearly 10% lower carbon emissions than its next rival, the A320neo. Moreover, the MAX9 has far better ratings than the 757 or 900NG. For airlines like Alaska, Delta, and United, moving to the MAX is going to help their ESG performance. For American and Southwest moving from the 800NG to MAX8 will also help their ESG performance. We have high hopes for the ESG numbers for the MAX10. Carbon emissions are a direct result of fuel burn. Every gallon of Jet-A burned generates 21.5 pounds of carbon. If the MAX has low carbon emissions that means it has a low fuel burn. The following table lists the fuel burn for US airline single-aisle aircraft. As one would expect, the latest generation aircraft with state-of-art engines deliver the best results. The table lists the results by seating to ensure the most equitable comparison. For example, on a miles/gallon basis, the A220-100 has the best result. But when accounting for seat count, the MAX9 and A321neo come out on top. Although the A321neo has an advantage in seat miles/gallon over the MAX9, there are other factors that give the MAX9 lower emissions. The A321neo flies (2022 data) 29% further and ~16% more hours in ramp-to-ramp time. The A321neo spends more time burning fuel and emitting carbon. Conclusion This is a data-rich post with lots of numbers to absorb. Perhaps this is the right moment to wrap it up. Boeing has been able to extend the 737 line one more iteration. Its MAX line is the most efficient generation by a significant amount. For example, the MAX9 is ~19% more fuel efficient than the 900NG according to the table above. We would offer a gap on the MAX8 vs the 800NG but believe data published by Southwest Airlines is inaccurate. We are in touch with the airline to get clarification. The table below illustrates the data problem for the MAX8. But for this data glitch, US airlines appear to be getting better performance from the MAX fleet compared to the NG fleet. Better range, lower fuel burn, and vastly better ESG numbers. Since the US is a crucial market for Boeing, MAX performance suggests US airlines may add to their fleets as they retire NGs. The MAX7 and MAX10 will round out the family, and these two are going to be interesting to watch. Especially the MAX10.

US Flight Planner - US DoT On-Time Data	Airbus vs Boeing - Official OEM Data
US Airline Schedule Performance - US DoT Data	Daily OEM Production & Deliveries -

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