A picture is worth a thousand words, and we’re not saying a thousand words about this, so here we go. A 408-word summary as we see it.
Airbus
- It’s having a great year but is still far from its delivery goal.
- As the declining curve shows, Airbus‘ efficiency is improving, which means it’s getting a better handle on its supply chain.
- However, the damage from earlier this year cannot be recovered.
Boeing
- The MAX remains the biggest challenge. Boeing is still trying to recover from the initial grounding, and we estimate 75 aircraft are in inventory. Of those, 54 are destined for Chinese airlines. Boeing must deliver at least one per day before January 20, 2025, or potentially get caught up in the future tariff fracas. Some of these MAXs first flew in 2019.
- The steep decline in the days’ curve shows the tremendous work effort required to recover from groundings and other hiccups. Boeing is paying its Renton workforce more after the strike, and they are worth it.
- Boeing’s supply chain is reeling from the disruptions on MAX and 787. It can’t be easy for them, but contracts are binding.
- The chart does not address other program issues, such as 777X, KC-46, and the yet-to-be-certified MAX models—there are too many loose strings. Do the layoffs help or hinder tying those strings?
COMAC
- This OEM attracts media attention as a threat to the duopoly. It will be a long time before that threat materializes.
- As deliveries rise, any quality and industrial confidence needs to be tempered. The days’ curve shows COMAC is learning and getting better.
- However, COMAC still depends on the Western supply chain but does not get the same attention as the three Western OEMs.
- COMAC is improving slowly. The word slowly seems to be their catchphrase.
EMBRAER
- EMBRAER data is less reliable because it hides first flight dates. Why they do this is a mystery.
- However, we can patch some of the data.
- EMBRAER is doing better than ever, but the FAL at San Jose dos Campos is not back to 2019 rates. This is by far their most important facility.
- The recovery is partly related to the external supply chain. However, to its credit, EMBRAER is continually developing new technologies to incorporate into its aircraft. This tweaking is helping across the board.
- Moreover, its C-390 is winning deals and opening new markets. The pressure from the failed Boeing deal is gone. New “Global South” alignments mean potentially significant opportunities.
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