Our tracker is updated through month-end, and here’s our scorecard.  February saw ten fewer new deliveries than January, primarily because of ATR and Embraer.

Airbus saw a nice bounce from January, while Boeing saw a dropoff.  In our view, the key number through February is the A321neo, as highlighted in the table.

There is pent-up momentum to deliver the MAX8s, but MAX9s are growing in popularity.  The global pilot shortage and growing traffic mean airlines need larger single-aisle aircraft.  This point is supported in the domestic US, where Seth Miller noted (citing Cirium) the number of flights in June is down 10% to 2019, but departing seats is up 1%.  Looking at the A321NX deliveries through February, the big customers have been Frontier, Delta, and American.

The single-aisle market is the largest.  And it seems this market is changing – upsizing across the globe.  The next chart is evidence of this.  The percentage of new deliveries for the single-aisle is increasingly in the MoM category.  This used to be the “757” segment, and the US was the largest market for that model.  And here we are, plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose

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Co-Founder AirInsight. My previous life includes stints at Shell South Africa, CIC Research, and PA Consulting. Got bitten by the aviation bug and ended up an Avgeek. Then the data bug got me, making me a curious Avgeek seeking data-driven logic. Also, I appreciate conversations with smart people from whom I learn so much. Summary: I am very fortunate to work with and converse with great people.

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